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基于DEA和ARIMA模型我国妇幼保健机构资源配置效率变化趋势及影响因素分析 被引量:2

Analysis of the changing trend and influencing factors of resource allocation efficiency of maternal and child health care institutions in China based on DEA and ARIMA models
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摘要 目的探讨我国妇幼保健机构卫生资源配置效率变化趋势及关键影响因素,提出卫生资源合理配置政策建议。方法从《中国统计年鉴》和《中国卫生健康统计年鉴》选取妇幼保健机构2010年1月至2020年12月基础配置(机构数、床位数、卫生技术人员)、服务数量(总诊疗人次、入院人数)和服务效率(病床周转次数、病床工作日、病床使用率)指标数据,采用时间序列模型预测2021—2025年各指标变化趋势,运用数据包络分析(DEA)模型对2010—2025年投入产出效率进行综合评价,找出关键影响因素。结果预测2022—2025年为非DEA有效年份。2010—2025年投入产出综合技术效率变化指数、纯技术效率和规模效率均值为1,技术进步指数和全要素生产率指数均值为0.971,主要影响因素是技术进步指数。2020年综合效益最低0.872,全要素生产率指数最低为0.825。结论我国妇幼保健机构基础配置投入和服务数量产出整体较高,服务效率未能得到显著提升。技术进步指数是影响产出效率及提升全要素生产率指数的主要影响因素,“十四五”期间重点关注。 Objective To explore the changing trend and key influencing factors of health resource allocation efficiency in maternal and child health care institutions in China,and to put forward policy suggestions for rational allocation of health resources.Methods The index data of basic configuration(number of institutions,number of beds,and health technicians),service quantity(total number of visits,number of inpatients)and service efficiency(number of bed turnover,bed working days,and bed utilization rate)of maternal and child health institutions were selected from China Statistical Yearbook and China Health Statistical Yearbook from January 2010 to December 2020.The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the change trend of each index from 2021 to 2025,and the data envelopment analysis(DEA)model was used to comprehensively evaluate the input-output efficiency from 2010 to 2025,and the key influencing factors were found out.Results It was predicted that 2022—2025 would be a non-DEA effective year.From 2010 to 2025,the average values of input-output comprehensive technical efficiency change index,pure technical efficiency,and scale efficiency were one,and the average values of technological progress index and total factor productivity index were 0.971.The main influencing factor was technological progress index.In 2020,the lowest comprehensive benefit was 0.872,and the lowest total factor productivity index was 0.825.Conclusion The basic allocation input and service quantity output of maternal and child health care institutions in China are relatively high,and the service efficiency has not been significantly improved.The technological progress index is the main influencing factor that affects the output efficiency and improves the total factor productivity index,which is paid special attention during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.
作者 张彬 张龙秀 ZHANG Bin;ZHANG Longxiu(Section of Science and Education,Anhui Maternal and Child Health Hospital,Anhui Province,Hefei230001,China;Image Center,Anhui Children’s Hospital,Anhui Province,Hefei230041,China)
出处 《中国医药导报》 CAS 2023年第27期192-196,共5页 China Medical Herald
基金 中国妇幼保健协会妇幼健康领域科研创新技术项目(ZGFYBJXH-KY2106) 安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2021CX520) 中国疾病预防控制中心母婴营养与健康研究资助项目(2022FYH007) 安徽省教育厅科学研究资助项目(2022AH050630)。
关键词 数据包络分析法 卫生资源配置 时间序列模型 BCC模型 MALMQUIST指数 Data envelop analysis Health resource allocation Autoregressive integrated moving average model BCC model Malmquist index
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