摘要
利用常规天气图资料、区域自动气象站资料、FY4卫星红外云图、雷达回波、EC细网格(0.25°×0.25°)等多模式预报资料,对2022年6月4日孝感市一次暴雨过程预报失误原因进行分析。结果表明,此次孝感市大到暴雨、局部大暴雨的天气过程是中低层切变线特别是850 hPa切变线,在500 hPa东北冷涡及其配合的低槽引导冷空气经东路南下的作用下,暖式切变线向冷式切变线转换过程中,暖式切变线暖区内对流云团发展和冷式切变线上对流云团再次发展而产生的。此次孝感市大到暴雨、局部大暴雨过程预报失误,是由于EC细网格模式对大尺度环流形势如东北低涡、主要影响系统如低层切变线的预报误差,多模式不同时效的降水量预报均偏小、同一时效不同模式预报一致性较差,以及预报员对数值预报模式预报产品的过于依赖等原因造成的。
Using conventional weather map data,regional automatic weather station data,FY4 satellite infrared cloud image,radar echo,EC fine grid(0.25°×0.25°)and other multi-model forecast data,the reason for the forecast error of a rainstorm process in Xiaogan City on June 4,2022 was analyzed.The results showed that the weather process of heavy torrential rain and local heavy rain in Xiaogan City this time mainly affected the middle and low-level shear line,especially the 850 hPa shear line.Under the action of going south,during the transformation process from warm shear line to cold shear line,convective cloud clusters developed in the warm area of warm shear line and convective cloud clusters developed again on cold shear line.This time,the heavy rainstorm in Xiaogan City and the local heavy rainstorm forecast error were due to the forecast error of the EC fine grid model on the large-scale circulation situation such as the northeast vortex,the main impact system such as the low-level shear line,and the precipitation of multiple models with different time effects the forecasts were all small,the forecast consistency of different models at the same time was poor,and the forecasters rely too much on the forecast products of numerical forecast models.
作者
邓凯
DENG Kai(Xiaogan City Meteorological Bureau,Xiaogan,Hubei 432000)
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
2023年第18期197-202,共6页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
暴雨
卫星云图
雷达回波
不稳定能量
数值预报
预报失误
Rainstorm
Satellite cloud image
Radar echo
Unstable energy
Numerical prediction
Forecast error
