摘要
地质灾害防范管控的系统性和专业性都很强,是近20a来一项新的事务,从零起步→基层实践→摸索总结→持续完善,但仍处于初步阶段。随着经济发展、社会进步、科技腾飞和人们对美好生活的向往,需要新的空间、新的格局和新的提升。基于《福建省地质灾害防治“十四五”规划》,结合《福建省群发性地质灾害发生规律》和20多年来作者在典型沿海山区大县(安溪)的基层探索实践,承接作者独撰2006年发表的《地质灾害风险管理对策论》,以福建为例,针对台风暴雨的显著特性,概括现状、立足实际、剖析问题、面对短板和制约瓶颈,以问题为导向,采取“复盘+推演”等方法,对福建地质安全隐患风险的类型及成因、孕灾启动情形、成灾致灾机理、早期识别和排查评价方法的建立展开逐项的分析阐明,初次提出“坡++”建房方式、不可忽视的“两个层积层”等概念,初步提出以本文提及的“创建+依靠”为基础,实施“双控模式+三员模式+四道防线”等相配套的精细化管控新举措,综合归纳为加法、减法、乘法和除法防范组合拳之对策。粗略看法,旨在抛砖引玉,以期待跟广大同行、专家和读者能进一步商榷、探讨和提升。
With strong systematic and professional characteristics,geological disaster prevention and management has been a new business in the past 2decades.Although having experienced zero start-grassroots practice-exploring and summarizing-continuous improvemnt,it is still in its infancy.The economic development,social progress,the soaring development of science and technology as well as people's yearning for a better life ask for new space,new pattern and new elevation.Based on the“The 14th Five-Year Plan for Geological Disaster Prevention and Control in Fujian Province”,“Occurrence Law of Cluster Geological Disasters in Fujian Province”,practical experience of the author in Anxi county for more than 20years and the author's paper titled“Countermeasures of Geological Hazards Management”published in 2006,taking Fujian as an example,this paper,for the prominent features of typhoon rainstorm,summarizes the current situation,bases on the reality,analyzes the problems,faces the weaknesses and constraint bottlenecks.Taking the problem as the orientation,the paper adopts the method of review and further research to analyze and illustrate the types and causes of the hidden risks of geological safety,the condition of disaster pregancy,disaster-causing mechanism as well as the establishment of early identification,investigation and evaluation methods in Fujian.The concepts of“Slope+”and“Teo Strata”are initiallt promoted.Based on the“Creation+Dependence”mentioned in this paper,the implementation of matching fine control new measures of“dual control mode+three member mode+four lines of defense”is roughly put forward.It is summarized as the countermeasures of addition?E,substraction,multiplication and division.The autor's rough view aims to look forward to further discussion and improvement with the majority of fellow experts and readers.
作者
卓万生
ZHUO Wan-sheng(Anxi Geo-hazard Office,Anxi,Fujian 362400,China;Graduate Workstation of Geological Disaster Prevention,Fuzhou University,Anxi,Fujian 362400,China)
出处
《地质灾害与环境保护》
2023年第3期28-35,共8页
Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation
基金
国家自然科学基金(41861134011)。
