摘要
背景:老年肱骨近端骨折是三大骨质疏松性骨折之一,解剖锁定钢板内固定是国内大部分医生治疗难以复位和复杂骨折类型的首选,但术后发生复位失效的概率较高,严重影响患者生活质量。目的:探讨三角肌结节指数与老年肱骨近端骨折术后复位失效的相关性,分析筛选出老年肱骨近端骨折术后复位失效的术前独立风险因素,并构建和验证临床预测模型的有效性。方法:收集2012年6月至2021年6月佛山市中医院符合标准的接受切开复位锁定钢板治疗的153例老年肱骨近端骨折患者的临床资料,根据其是否发生术后复位失效分为复位失效亚组和复位维持亚组。采用先单因素后多因素Logistic回归分析筛选独立风险因素,通过R语言构建列线图,内部验证采用Bootstrap法重抽样1000次后,通过Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度关联检验、绘制受试者工作特征曲线、校准曲线、临床决策和影响曲线评价其拟合优度、区分度、校准能力和临床应用价值。选择2013年6月至2021年8月收治的55例老年肱骨近端骨折患者作为模型外部验证组,评价预测模型的稳定性和准确度。结果与结论:①训练组153例患者中,44例患者出现钢板内固定术后复位失效,失效率为28.8%;多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,三角肌结节指数[OR=9.782,95%CI(3.798,25.194)]、骨折端内翻成角移位[OR=4.209,95%CI(1.472,12.031)]、肱骨内侧柱粉碎[OR=4.278,95%CI(1.670,10.959)]是老年肱骨近端骨折术后复位失效的独立风险因素(P<0.05);②基于独立风险因素构建预测模型并绘制列线图,训练组Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示,χ^(2)=0.812(P=0.976),曲线下面积=0.830[95%CI(0.762,0.898)];校准图结果表明模型预测风险和实际发生风险有较好的一致性;决策曲线和临床影响曲线结果表明列线图具有较好的临床适用性;③预测模型在验证组预测术后复位失效总正确率86%,曲线下面积=0.902[95%CI
BACKGROUND:Proximal humeral fracture in older adults is one of the three major osteoporotic fractures.Anatomic locking plate fixation is the first choice for most scholars to treat difficult-to-reduce and complex fracture types.However,the probability of reduction failure after the operation is high,which seriously affects patients’quality of life.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the correlation between deltoid tuberosity index and postoperative reduction failure of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly,analyze and filter preoperative independent risk factors for reduction failure of proximal humeral fractures in the elderly,and construct and verify the effectiveness of a clinical prediction model.METHODS:The clinical data of 153 elderly patients with proximal humeral fractures who met the diagnosis and inclusion criteria and received open reduction and locking plate surgery in Foshan Hospital of TCM from June 2012 to June 2021 were collected.The patients were divided into the reduction failure subgroup and the reduction maintenance subgroup.The independent risk factors were selected by multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and the nomogram was constructed by R language.After 1000 times of resampling by Bootstrap method,the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit correlation test,receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,clinical decision,and influence curve were plotted to evaluate its goodness of fit,discrimination,calibration ability,and clinical application value.Fifty-five elderly patients with proximal humeral fractures from June 2013 to August 2021 were selected as the model’s external validation group to evaluate the prediction model’s stability and accuracy.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Of the 153 patients in the training group,44 patients met reduction failure after internal plate fixation.The prevalence of postoperative reduction failure was 28.8%.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis identified that deltoid tuberosity index[OR=9.782,95%CI(3.798,25.194)],varus displacement[OR=4.209,95%CI(
作者
徐大星
纪木强
涂泽松
许伟鹏
徐伟龙
牛维
Xu Daxing;Ji Muqiang;Tu Zesong;Xu Weipeng;Xu Weilong;Niu Wei(Applicant with Equivalent Academic Qualifications for Doctoral Degree,Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong Province,China;Department of Orthopedics,Sanshui Branch of Foshan Hospital of TCM,Foshan 528100,Guangdong Province,China;Department of Orthopedics,Foshan Hospital of TCM,Foshan 528000,Guangdong Province,China;Department of Orthopedics,Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedics Hospital,Shenzhen 518122,Guangdong Province,China;Department of Articular Surgery,Guangdong Provincial Hospital of Chinese Medicine,Guangzhou 510120,Guangdong Province,China)
出处
《中国组织工程研究》
CAS
北大核心
2024年第21期3299-3305,共7页
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research
基金
广东省医学科学技术研究基金(B2023493),项目负责人:徐大星
佛山市自筹经费类科技创新入库项目(2220001004493),项目负责人:徐大星。
关键词
肱骨近端骨折
老年人
骨折内固定
三角肌结节指数
风险预测模型
列线图
proximal humeral fracture
elderly
fracture internal fixation
deltoid tuberosity index
risk prediction model
nomogram
