摘要
老龄化目前是全球人口结构变化的重要特点,对世界各国和地区的社会经济发展产生了深刻影响。作为正式步入老龄社会的发展中国家,人口老龄化对我国经济高质量发展带来严峻挑战。基于2000-2018年省际面板数据,分析老龄化对我国经济高质量发展的影响发现:从区域来看,各地区经济高质量发展水平与老龄化程度大体一致;老龄化抑制了经济高质量发展,但在人口迁移背景下,老龄化对我国经济高质量发展的影响在不同时期表现迥异。2000-2005年,老龄化对经济高质量发展产生的负面影响较小;2006-2012年,前者对后者产生正面促进作用;2013-2018年前者对后者又产生显著负面影响。
Aging is currently an important feature of changes in the global population structure,and it has had a profound impact on the socio-economic development of countries and regions in the world.As a developing country that is about to enter an aging society,China's population aging poses huge challenges to high-quality economic development.Based on inter-provincial panel data from the year 2000 to 2018,the Solow economic growth model and Cobb-Douglas production function are used to study the impact of aging on high-quality economic development.The results show that:(i)When the factor of population migration is not considered,aging has had a negative impact on the high-quality development of China's economy during the study period.Among them,the negative impact of deeply aging areas is twice that of lightly aging areas.(i)When considering the factors of population migration,aging still has a restraining effect on high-quality economic development,but the restraining effect is weakening.Among them,the degree of negative impact of aging on the high-quality economic development,from strong to weak,is:Net population outflow into deeply aging areas>Net population inflow into deeply aging areas~Net population outflow into shallowly aging areas>Net population inflow into shallowly aging areas.(ili)The regression analysis by periods shows that in the context of population migration,the effects of aging on the high-quality economic development of our country have different results in different periods.The negative impact of aging on the high-quality economic development is relatively small from the year 2000 to 2005;the former has a positive effect on the latter from the year 2006 to 2012;the former has a significant negative impact on the latter from the year 2013 to 2018.
出处
《河南大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2023年第5期25-32,152,153,共10页
Journal of Henan University(Social Sciences）
基金
甘肃省“双一流”重点科研项目“甘肃省高质量发展的统计测度、战略选择及实现路径”(GSSYLXM-06)阶段性成果
兰州财经大学“生态经济与区域发展科研创新团队”支持计划项目(Lzufe-SRT202004)阶段性成果。
