摘要
由生育率持续下降与预期寿命不断延长引起的日益加剧的人口老龄化不仅导致我国劳动供给将逐渐减少,而且也将导致我国养老金供给逐渐减少和养老金需求逐渐增加,危及现收现付养老金制度可持续运行。为应对人口老龄化带来的负面经济影响,提高生育率和延迟退休被视为两大重要举措,但适度放开生育限制后,我国总和生育率并未有明显提高,总和生育率仍维持在较低水平,而且延迟退休政策也面临很大社会阻力,导致鼓励生育和延迟退休政策及其效果具有较大不确定性。为消除或减轻制约生育率提高和延迟退休的不确定因素,文章从探究提高生育率和延迟退休的必要性、可行性及影响因素出发,提出有利于提高生育率和延迟退休的激励和约束机制,为缓解人口老龄化带给我国经济发展的负面影响提出一些潜在的可持续应对措施。
The increasing aging population caused by the continuous decrease of fertility rate and the continuous extension of life expectancy will not only lead to the gradual decrease of labor supply,but also lead to the gradual decrease of pension supply and the gradual increase of pension demand,endangering the sustainable operation of pay-as-you-go pension system.For the realization of the sustainable development of China’s pension system,improving the fertility rate and delaying retirement are regarded as two important measures.After a moderate release of birth restriction,China’s total fertility rate is not significantly improved and the total fertility rate remains at a low level.Moreover,the policy of delaying retirement also faces great social resistance,leading to greater uncertainty in the policies of encouraging fertility and delaying retirement and their effects.In order to eliminate or alleviate the uncertain factors that restrict the increase of fertility rate and delayed retirement,the article explores the necessity,feasibility,and influencing factors of increasing fertility rate and delayed retirement,and proposes incentive and constraint mechanisms that are conducive to increasing fertility rate and delaying retirement.It also proposes some potential sustainable response measures to alleviate the negative impact of population aging on China’s economic development.
作者
王云多
Wang Yunduo(Economic and Business Management School,Heilongjiang University,Haerbin 150080,China)
出处
《当代经济管理》
北大核心
2023年第9期71-78,共8页
Contemporary Economic Management
基金
黑龙江省社会科学规划基金《人口老龄化与城市化双重约束下黑龙江省城乡居民养老保险待遇适度水平研究》(22RKB166)
黑龙江省人口经济与人才发展战略研究中心智库开放课题《城市化视角下提高黑龙江省生育率的战略研究》(ZKKF2022079)。
关键词
生育率
人口老龄化
延迟退休
养老金
可持续性
fertility rate
population aging
delaying retirement
pension
sustainability
