摘要
乌克兰危机以来,全球天然气市场深刻调整,高价与短缺成为关键词。在全球天然气供应短缺与气价飙升的同时,液化天然气(Liquefied Natural Gas,LNG)船运市场也出现了运力紧张、运价快速上涨的情况。然而,受天然气市场供应短缺与价格高企影响,天然气供应安全受到重点关注、LNG长协签订量大增、新一轮投资热潮兴起,为贸易格局调整埋下伏笔。展望未来,投资的增加有助于天然气市场逐渐走出短缺局面,价格逐渐回落,进而推动消费增长,因此欧洲天然气消费下降不影响全球消费稳步增长大势;天然气贸易流向进一步调整,美国与亚太地区影响力日渐提升;LNG贸易灵活性不断增加依然是长期趋势。对国家而言,应抓住变革机遇努力提升在国际天然气市场的影响力;对公司而言,需把握价格波动周期,避免签订高价长协,积极打造LNG全球资源池。
Since the Ukraine crisis,the global natural gas market has undergone profound adjustments,with high prices and shortages becoming the key words.While the global natural gas is in short supply and the gas price is soaring,the LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas)shipping market has also experienced a shortage of transportation capacity and a sharp increase in freight rates.However,as affected by the shortage in supply in the natural gas market and high prices,the security of natural gas supply has received key attention,the volume of long-term LNG supply contracts has increased significantly,and a new round of investment boom has emerged,laying the foundation for the adjustment of the trade pattern.Looking ahead,the increase in investment will help the natural gas market emerging from shortages emerging and prices will gradually fall,which in turn will drive consumption growth.So the decline in gas consumption in Europe will not affect the general trend of steady global consumption growth;natural gas trade flow will be further adjusted,with the U.S.and Asia-Pacific gaining influence;increasing LNG trade flexibility remains a long-term trend.For a national perspective,it is a good time to seize the opportunities of reform and strive to enhance its influence on the international natural gas market;As far as the company is concerned,it is necessary to grasp the price fluctuation cycle,avoid signing high price long-term agreements,and proactively build a global LNG resource pool.
作者
王震
孔盈皓
李梦祎
WANG Zhen;KONG Yinghao;LI Mengyi(CNOOC Energy Economics Institute,Beijing,100013,China)
出处
《天然气与石油》
2023年第3期1-5,共5页
Natural Gas and Oil
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“规模与环境友好双导向下海洋油气开发激励机制设计与政策研究”(19YJCZH06)。
