摘要
竞技体育成绩的变化规律具有不确定性、未知性以及模糊性等特点,把握竞技体育成绩的发展变化规律对竞技项目的训练目标以及发展具有重要意义.在理解分析灰色系统理论的基础上,以近7届(第26~32届)奥运会男子100m金牌成绩为原始数据,运用灰色系统理论建立奥运会男子100m金牌成绩GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,曲线拟合结果为y=2376.0576e^(-0.0042k)(e^(0.0042-1)).对模型进行相关指标检验,得出模型的精确度较高,具有一定的应用价值.对第33届奥运会男子金牌成绩进行了预测分析,当k=7时,模型预测结果100m成绩为9.7007s,结果为揭示奥运会男子100m金牌成绩的发展趋势提供了积极的理论参考.
The changes in competitive sports performance have characteristics such as uncertainty,unknown,and fuzziness.Grasping the development and changes in competitive sports performance is of great significance for the training objectives and development of competitive events.On the basis of understanding and analyzing the grey system theory,this study used the men s 100m gold medal results of 7(26th to 32nd)Olympic Games as raw data,and used grey system theory to establish a GM(1,1)grey prediction model for the men s 100m gold medal results of the Olympic Games.The curve fitting results are y=2376.0576 e^(-0.0042k)(e^(0.0042-1)).By conducting relevant indicator tests on the model,it was found that the model has high accuracy and certain application value.A predictive analysis was conducted on the men s gold medal performance in the 33rd Olympic Games.When k=7,the model predicted a result of 9.7007 seconds for the 100 meter performance.The result provided a positive theoretical reference for revealing the development trend of men s 100 meter gold medal performance in the Olympics Games.
作者
龙家勇
蔚卓虹
LONG Jiayong;WEI Zhuohong(Sports Department,Southwest University of Political Science and Law,Chongqing 401120,China;Jinzhou Primary School in Liangjiang New District,Chongqing 401121,China)
出处
《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2023年第7期123-128,共6页
Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学一般项目(21SKGH021)
重庆市研究生教育教学改革研究项目(yjg223025)
重庆市深化教育领域综合改革第9批试点项目(2023).
