摘要
本文针对运动成绩变化规律的模糊性、未知性等 ,运用灰色理论的模型方法建立了我国女子自由泳全国纪录 5个项目的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型 ,并进行了后验差检验和关联度分析 ,结果表明预测模型精度均为一级 ,模型可信度较高 ,具有一定的实用价值 ,可以用来揭示女子自由泳各项运动成绩的发展趋势。并对2 0 0 2年的运动成绩进行了预测。
In allusion to the unpredictability and uncertainty of the regularity of the change of athletes' performances and by applying the model of sports grey theory, the grey model (GM 1,1)for predicting the Chinese national records in 5 events of the women freestyle swimming. The after-check difference examination and the relative degree were analyzed. The results indicated that the precision of the model is up to the first class, which is reliable and useful in practice. It can be used to reveal the development trend of the performances in various events of the women freestyle swimming. And the model was used to try to predict the performances in 2002.
出处
《北京体育大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2001年第4期499-500,共2页
Journal of Beijing Sport University
基金
黑龙江省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目资助阶段研究成果
