摘要
致灾危险性评估是暴雨灾害风险评估与区划的关键。基于安徽省所有国家气象观测站及区域自动气象站建站至2020年逐日逐时降水量及地理信息等资料,采用信息熵赋权法确定单站暴雨过程四个特征量的权重,并计算出暴雨过程强度指数及年雨涝指数,运用百分位数法将暴雨过程强度等级划分为四级,依据海拔高度和地形变化,分别计算山洪和平原内涝的孕灾环境影响指数及致灾危险性指数,并将两者进行叠加,得到安徽省暴雨综合致灾危险性分布。结果表明:基于50%、75%和90%三个百分位数的安徽省暴雨过程强度指数的阈值分别为0.059、0.095和0.154;年雨涝指数呈现“南高北低”的空间分布,大别山区、沿江中西部及江南西南部较高,而沿淮淮北及江淮之间中部相对较低;山洪和平原内涝的孕灾环境影响指数与地形密切相关,大别山区和皖南山区山洪孕灾环境影响指数较高,合肥以北、沿江大部及江南东部平原内涝孕灾环境影响指数较高;根据风险就高的原则,将山洪和平原内涝进行叠加,得出融合山洪和平原内涝的暴雨综合致灾危险性分布图,高危险区主要位于安徽省西南部,而低危险区主要位于淮北北部、沿淮中西部及江淮之间中部。评估结果可用于全省气象灾害综合风险普查专项工作、实时气象防灾减灾业务服务以及规划计划、重大工程建设气候可行性论证等工作。
Disaster-causing hazard assessment is the key to risk assessment and regionalization of rainstorms and flood disasters.Using the hourly and daily precipitation data of all national and regional meteorological stations in Anhui Province from the year of establishment of these stations to 2020,as well as the geographic information data,etc.,this paper has determined the weights of the four characteristic quanti-ties of the single station rainstorm process by the information entropy weighting method,and then calculated the rainstorm process intensity indexes and annual waterlogging indexes.The intensity grade of the rainstorm process is divided into four grades by using the percentage quantile method.According to the altitude and terrain changes,the hazard-inducing environment impact index and disaster-causing hazard index of torrential flood and plain waterlogging are calculated respectively,and the two are superimposed to obtain the comprehensive distri-bution of disaster-causing hazard of rainstorms in Anhui Province.The results show that the thresholds of the rainstorm process intensity in-dex in Anhui Province based on the three percentiles of 50%,75%,and 90%are 0.059,0.095,and 0.154 respectively.The annual waterlog-ging index shows a spatial distribution of the"high in the south and low in the north"characteristic,with higher values in the Dabie Mountain,the central and western region along the Yangtze River,and the southwestern region of the Jiangnan,while relatively lower values in the Huaibei region and the middle of the Jiang-Huai region.The hazard-inducing environment impact indexes of torrential flood and plain water-logging are closely related to terrain.The hazard-inducing environment impact index of the torrential flood is relatively high in the Dabie Mountain and southern mountainous area in Anhui Province,while the hazard-inducing environment impact index of plain waterlogging is relatively high in the northern part of Hefei,most areas along the Yangtze River and the eastern of Jiangnan.According to
作者
谢五三
唐为安
王胜
XIE Wusan;TANG Weian;WANG Sheng(Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031;Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031)
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2023年第3期353-359,共7页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J007)
安徽省自然科学基金项目(1908085MD109)
国家气候中心能源气候服务团队建设项目(NCCCXTD003)。
关键词
致灾危险性
雨涝指数
孕灾环境影响指数
暴雨
地理信息系统
disaster-causing hazard
waterlogging index
hazard inducing environment impact index
rainstorm
geographic information system
