摘要
本文选取2009-2021年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究样本,探究业绩说明会语调对公司未来股价崩盘风险的影响及其作用机制,即业绩说明会语调是否通过影响分析师预测偏差从而影响股价崩盘风险。结果表明,业绩说明会语调可以显著降低上市公司的股价崩盘风险,且业绩说明会中语调越积极的上市公司股价崩盘的风险越小,验证了业绩说明会语调具有信息含量;分析师预测偏差是业绩说明会语调影响股价崩盘风险路径中的中介变量,即业绩说明会语调会通过影响分析师预测偏差从而对股价崩盘风险产生影响。研究结果丰富了现有关于股价崩盘风险的研究文献,并对完善企业信息披露制度,规范分析师行为,进而防止股价崩盘风险提出相关政策建议,对促进资本市场健康运行有着积极意义。
In this paper,we investigate the influence of the tone of the earnings presentation on the risk of future stock price collapse and its mechanism of action,i.e.,whether the tone of the earnings presentation affects the risk of stock price collapse by influencing analysts'forecast bias.The results show that the tone of the earnings presentation can significantly reduce the risk of stock price collapse of listed companies,and the more positive the tone of the earnings presentation,the lower the risk of stock price collapse of listed companies,verifying that the tone of the earnings presentation has information content;analyst forecast bias is a mediating variable in the path of earnings presentation tone affecting the risk of stock price collapse,i.e.,the tone of the earnings presentation affects the risk of stock price collapse by affecting analyst forecast bias.The results of the study enrich the existing research literature on stock price collapse risk and provide relevant policy recommendations to improve the corporate information disclosure system,regulate analysts'behavior,and thus prevent stock price collapse risk,which have positive implications for promoting the healthy operation of the capital market.
作者
艾子莘
张青龙
Zixin Ai;Qinglong Zhang(School of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai,200082,China)
关键词
业绩说明会语调
分析师预测偏差
股价崩盘风险
中介效应
Earnings Presentation Tone
Analyst Forecast Bias
Risk of Stock Price Collapse
Mediating Effect
