摘要
利用2005-2017年中国A股上市公司业绩说明会高管回复的文本信息,考察管理层语调对股价暴跌风险的影响及其机制。结果显示:管理层净正面语调与股价暴跌风险呈显著的负相关关系,即语调越正面的公司,股价暴跌风险越小,这表明业绩说明会中管理层语调具有一定的信息含量,投资者会依据管理层语调进行投资决策。将净正面语调分解为正面语调和负面语调后发现,语调与股价暴跌风险的显著关系主要来自于负面语调的影响,负面语调的增加会显著提升股价暴跌风险,而正面语调对股价暴跌的抑制作用并不明显。进一步的机制分析发现,管理层语调越积极的企业,其信息披露质量越高,进而股价暴跌风险较低;管理层的超额语调越大,管理层语调越脱离公司真实情况,导致股价暴跌风险越大。另外,考虑企业的异质性和外部监管的影响效应,发现在股权分散企业和小规模企业,管理层语调对股价暴跌风险的影响更加突出。因此,进一步深化资本市场改革,拓展投资者获取企业信息的渠道,是完善企业信息披露制度、提升信息披露质量的重要方式。
With a data set of Chinese A-share listed companies'earnings communication conference text from 2005 to 2017,this paper investigates the impact of managerial tone on stock price crash and the underlying mechanism.Empirical evidences show that there is a significant negative correlation between manager's net positive tone and the stock price crash risk.The higher the positive net tone of the company,the lower the stock price crash risk.This result shows that the managerial tone in earnings communication conference is report informative.Investors make investment decisions based on not only financial reports but also on the tone of managers.After decomposing the net positive tone into positive tone and negative tone,this paper finds that the significant relationship between managerial tone and stock price crash risk is mainly driven by the effect of manager's negative tone.The increase of negative tone will significantly increase the stock price crash risk,while the effect of positive tone on the stock price crash risk is not obvious.Further mechanism analysis shows that the more positive the manager's tone,the higher the quality of information disclosure,and the less the likelihood of stock price crash.The higher manager's abnormal tone,the more likely information is deviated from firm's real situation and the more likely there will be a stock price crash.In addition,this paper also considers the influence of the nature of the company and external supervision,and the results show that in companies with low ownership concentration and small-scale companies,the impact of management tone on stock price crash is more prominent.Therefore,deep capital market reform and expanding the channels for investors to obtain corporate information are important channels for improving the corporate information disclosure system and thus to increase the quality of information disclosure.
作者
张小慧
孙晓玲
张璇
李万峰
ZHANG Xiao-hui;SUN Xiao-ling;ZHANG Xuan;LI Wan-feng
出处
《产经评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期113-129,共17页
Industrial Economic Review
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“银行业竞争的微观资源配置效应评估与金融结构优化政策的研究”(项目编号:71873145,项目负责人:张璇)。
关键词
管理层语调
股价暴跌
业绩说明会
信息披露质量
超额语调
tone of managers
stock price crash
earnings communication conference
quality of information disclosure
abnormal tone
