摘要
青岛市是中国北方典型海岸带城市代表,常年受到风暴潮灾害影响。本文以青岛风暴潮淹没风险为例,以适应策略制定为出口,构建一种基于适应的城市气候风险空间评估体系,该体系将风暴潮淹没从风险辩识、风险整合到风险分区有机关联到一起,有效评估基于中长期尺度的海岸带城市风暴潮淹没风险。通过研究发现,在未来各种情景下,淹没风险较高的区域分别为大沽河、洋河、墨水河及其沿岸,对于上述区域在未来中长期时间尺度内,在考虑城市发展的同时也要关注并适应未来气候变化背景下风暴潮淹没带来的风险。从某种程度上基于适应的风险空间综合评估体系,可以将未来不同情景下的风暴潮淹没风险与未来城市发展规划、国家宏观适应方针等有机结合,有效评估基于中长期尺度的海岸带城市风暴潮淹没风险,并为实现从气候风险评估到适应策略制定的转变奠定一定的基础和技术支撑。
Qingdao is a typical coastal city in northern China and is affected by storm surges all year round.Taking the risk of storm surge inundation in Qingdao as an example,this paper constructs a spatial assessment system for urban climate risk based on adaptation,taking the formulation of adaptation strategies as the export,which organically links storm surge inundation from risk identification,risk integration to risk zoning,an effective assessment of coastal urban storm surge inundation risk based on medium and long-term scales.Through research,it is found that under various future scenarios,the areas with higher inundation risk are Dagu River,Yanghe River,Moshui River and their banks.Be aware of and adapt to the risks posed by storm surge inundation in the context of future climate change.It should be said that,to some extent,the risk spatial comprehensive assessment system based on adaptation can organically combine the storm surge inundation risk under different scenarios in the future with future urban development planning and national macro adaptation policies,and effectively assess the storm surge inundation risk of coastal cities based on medium and long-term scale,and lay a certain foundation and technical support for the transformation from climate risk assessment to adaptation strategy formulation.
作者
王宁
于格
江文胜
王尚
耿爱玉
林群
Wang Ning;Yu Ge;Jiang Wensheng;Wang Shang;Geng Aiyu;Lin Qun(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;The Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology,Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Qingdao Development and Reform Commission,Qingdao 266071,China)
出处
《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第7期118-127,共10页
Periodical of Ocean University of China
基金
城市气候行动规划项目(20200258)
青岛适应气候变化规划制定项目(20180239)
中瑞国际合作项目(INTASAVEACCC-045)资助。
关键词
风暴潮淹没
气候风险
风险评估
海岸带城市
storm surge inundation
climate risk
risk assessment
coastal city
