摘要
就业与人民福祉紧密相连,“一带一路”倡议对就业有深远影响。文章基于2000~2020年中国291个城市面板数据建立理论分析框架,并使用Bartik工具变量缓解内生性问题,对“一带一路”倡议下中国OFDI的国内就业效应进行实证检验。实证结果表明,中国OFDI促进了生产要素的国际流动,使国内外生产要素呈现互补关系,扩大了国内就业规模,因此“一带一路”倡议通过促进中国OFDI拉动了国内就业。同时,就业效应会因城市区位、城市级别以及产业而异。此外,文章还发现,“一带一路”倡议显著促进了资源型城市的就业,产业结构升级是OFDI影响就业的重要中介变量,人力资本高级化对就业效应产生显著的负向调节作用。为此,文章提出应进一步加快“一带一路”建设,不断提升其影响力和经济效益,同时要积极应对产业结构调整所带来的就业压力,加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。
Employment is closely combined with people's well-being.The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has a far-reaching influence on employment.Based on the panel data of 291 cities in China from 2000 to 2020,a theoretical analysis framework was established,and the effects of OFDI on domestic employment under the BRI were empirically tested by combining the simultaneous equation model to control the endogenous problem.The empirical results show that China's OFDI not only promotes the international flow of production factors,but also make domestic and foreign production factors more complementary,which expands the scale of domestic employment.Therefore the BRI promotes domestic employment by promoting China's OFDI.At the same time,the employment effect will vary with city location,city level and industry.In addition,industrial structure upgrading is an important mediating variable of OFDI to affect employment.Finally,human capital advancement has a significant negative moderating effect on the employment effect.Therefore,more attention should be paid to the construction of the Belt and Road.Policy makers should constantly improve its influence and economic benefits,and actively cope with the employment pressure caused by the industrial restructuring,so as to build China into a high-quality open economy.
作者
赵蓓文
王跃
ZHAO Beiwen;WANG Yue
出处
《世界经济研究》
北大核心
2023年第5期3-16,M0002,共15页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“制度型开放与全球经济治理制度创新研究”(项目编号:20&ZD062)的阶段性成果。
