摘要
城市尺度避难疏散模拟可发现应急避难服务缺口,为避难场所建设提供量化基础。基于手机信令数据,构建疏散模拟模型,以天津市小白楼CBD地区为例,进行地震应急避难疏散模拟,研究发现:区域内总避难需求人数约79.3万,在全部298个地块中,紧急避难需求人员分布于白天的地块有199个;全部疏散路径的平均疏散时间约为10.8 min,小于10 min的路径占比约80.3%。116个紧急避难场所平均接收人数为6396,其中25处接收人数超过10000,6处接收人数超过20000。超容规模较大的避难场所主要分布于天津站周边地区、海河东岸沿线区域、南京路沿线地区、津湾广场、锦州道及山西路等,其中64个已超出其最大容量,共计超出容量人数为42.68万,场均超容6668人;52个未超容避难场所,总计最大能容纳38.08万人,但实际接收13.73万人,尚能容纳共计24.35万人。
The simulation of urban-scale evacuation can help to find the gap between the actually-required number of the emergency shelters and the number of the existing emergency shelters,and to provide a quantitative basis for the construction of emergency shelters.Based on the mobile phone signaling data,an evacuation model is built to simulate the earthquake evacuation in Xiaobailou area,the CBD of Tianjin.It is found that the total number of people in need of refuge in the area was about 793000,and among the 298 plots,199 plots are required for evacuation during the daytime.The average evacuation time for the people on all routes is about 10.8 minutes,and the routes for people costing less than 10 minutes account for about 80.3%.The average number of refugees accommodated by 116 emergency shelters in evacuation simulation is 6396.There are 25 shelters whose maximum capacity is more than 10000 people and 6 shelters whose maximum capacity is more than 20000 people.Shelters with large excess capacity are mainly distributed around Tianjin railway station,along the East Bank of Haihe River,along Nanjing Road,in Jinwan Square,along Jinzhou Road and Shanxi Road,among which 64 have exceeded their maximum capacity,with 426800 people exceeding the total capacity and 6668 people exceeding the average capacity.There are 52 shelters which refugees do not exceed their capacity,altogether they can accommodate 380800 people,but the actual refugees are 137300;there is a gap of 243500 people.
作者
陈伟
汤一鸣
赵军
高婧怡
翟国方
CHEN Wei;TANG Yiming;ZHAO Jun;GAO Jingyi;ZHAI Guofang(School of Management,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;School of Geographic and Biologic Information,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Jiangsu Provincial Architectural Design and Research Institute,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China;Department of Architecture and Building Science,Graduate School of Engineering,Tohoku University,Sendai 980-8579,Japan;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期611-621,共11页
Journal of Seismological Research
基金
国家自然科学基金(52108053)
江苏省社会科学基金(20ZZC001)
江苏省自然科学基金(BK20200762).
关键词
应急避难场所
手机信令数据
地震避难
疏散模拟
天津
emergency shelter
mobile phone signaling data
earthquake disaster
evacuation simulation
Tanjin
