摘要
目的:分析1990-2019年中国癌症归因于超重肥胖的疾病负担变化趋势并对其未来10年的变化进行预测,为我国癌症防控提供参考依据。方法:基于2019年全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)平台,采用伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)描述疾病负担,利用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国人群癌症归因于超重肥胖的疾病负担的时间变化趋势;通过自回归滑动平均混合(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)模型预测未来10年的疾病负担情况。结果:1990-2019年中国癌症归因于超重肥胖的DALYs负担呈上升趋势,平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage of change,AAPC)为3.87%。亚组分析,肝癌、食管癌及女性子宫癌的标化DALYs率在2016年以来均呈上升趋势;其余种类癌症均呈持续上升趋势。预测结果显示,不同种类癌症归因于超重肥胖的标化DALYs率均持续增加,其中男性DALYs负担顺位前5分别为食管癌、肝癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肾癌,女性DALYs负担顺位前5分别为乳腺癌、食管癌、子宫癌、肝癌、结直肠癌。1990年和2019年,男性DALYs率峰值均在70~<75岁,女性DALYs率峰值则由65~<70岁后移至70~<75岁。结论:1990-2019年以及未来10年中国癌症归因于超重肥胖的疾病负担总体呈上升趋势,其中男性食管癌、肝癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肾癌,以及女性乳腺癌、食管癌、子宫癌、肝癌、结直肠癌的疾病负担最重。中老年和男性是重点关注人群,建议采取综合干预措施以降低肥胖导致的癌症疾病负担。
Objective:To analyze the long-term trend of cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in the China from 1990 to 2019 and make predictions for the next decade,in order to provide a reference for the prevention and control of cancer.Methods:Based the data from the 2019 global burden of disease(GBD),we used disability adjusted life years(DALYs)to represent the disease burden of cancer.The Joinpoint regression model was used to reflect the temporal trend of cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in China,and an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was constructed to predict the burden over the next decade.Results:From 1990 to 2019,the DALYs of cancer attribute to excess body weight shown a significant increasing trend,and the average annual percentage of change(AAPC)was 3.87%.According to subgroup analysis,the age-standardized DALYs rates of liver cancer,esophageal cancer and female uterine cancer showed an increasing trend since 2016.Other types of cancers showed an a continuous upward trend.In the next decade of prediction,the age-standardized DALYs rates of cancers attributable to excess body weight continued to increase for different types of cancer.The top 5 of DALYs burden were esophageal cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer and kidney cancer for male,and were breast cancer,esophageal cancer,uterine cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer for female.In 1990 and 2019,the peak age of DALYs rates in male was both at 70~<75 years old,but changed from 65~<70 years old to 70~<75 years old in female.Conclusion:From 1990 to 2019 and in the next decade,the cancer burden attributable to excess body weight in China has generally been on the rise,with esophageal cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,kidney cancer in male,and breast cancer,esophageal cancer,uterine cancer,liver cancer,and colorectal cancer in female bearing the highest disease burden.Middle-aged and elderly as well as male people should be the focus populations of attention.There is an urge
作者
李志学
刘峥
马艳
郭艳芳
王德旺
赵仁成
袁青
李志浩
徐英
LI Zhixue;LIU Zheng;MA Yan;GUO Yanfang;WANG Dewang;ZHAO Rencheng;YUAN Qing;LI Zhihao;XU Ying(Department of Chronic Disease Prevention and Control,Shenzhen Baoan Center for Chronic Diseases Control,Guangdong Shenzhen 518101,China;Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Southern Medical University,Guangdong Guangzhou 510515,China)
出处
《现代肿瘤医学》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第12期2314-2322,共9页
Journal of Modern Oncology
基金
深圳市科创委基础研究面上项目(编号:JCYJ20210324125202006)。
