摘要
为保障油气并行管道的安全平稳运行,从管体子系统和外界子系统两方面建立了风险评价指标体系,采用G1法和熵权法分别对指标进行主、客观赋权,结合博弈论调和权重,并利用耦合协同理论对并行管道进行风险评价,最后与多维云模型和集对分析法进行对比验证。结果表明,管体系统对风险评价的影响更大,管体系统中并行间距的权重最大,外界系统中截断阀间距的权重最大;所有管段的耦合协同程度多数为“中”,高度耦合的并行管段风险度较大,低度耦合的并行管段风险度较小,两者的变化趋势基本一致。与其他模型相比,评价结果与实际情况相符,未出现高估或低估风险的现象。研究结果可为并行管道的相关定量化评价提供新思路。
In order to ensure the safe and stable operation of oil and gas parallel pipelines,a risk assessment index system was established from two aspects of pipe body subsystem and external subsystem.The improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method were used to assign subjective and objective weights to the indicators respectively,and combined with the Game Theory to reconcile the weights,and the coupled synergy theory was used to evaluate the risk of parallel pipelines.Finally,the analysis method is compared with multidimensional cloud model and set pair analysis.The results show that the pipe body system has more influence on the risk assessment,the weight of parallel spacing in the pipe body system is the largest,and the weight of truncation valve spacing in the external system is the largest.The coupling coordination degree of the whole pipeline is mostly“medium”,and the risk degree of highly coupled parallel pipe segment is larger,while the risk degree of low-coupled parallel pipe segment is smaller.The change trend of the two is basically the same.Compared with other models,the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,and there is no overestimation or underestimation of risks.The research results can provide a new idea for the correlation quantitative evaluation of parallel pipelines.
作者
赵丽
王丹丹
孙斌
左婧
崔洁
梁昌晶
ZHAO Li;WANG Dandan;SUN Bin;ZUO Jing;CUI Jie;LIANG Changjing(No.5 Oil Production Plant,PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Xinji,Hebei 052360,China;No.1 Oil Production Plant,PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China;Exploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China)
出处
《石油管材与仪器》
2023年第3期21-25,共5页
Petroleum Tubular Goods & Instruments
关键词
博弈论
耦合协同
并行管道
风险评价
风险度
Game Theory
coupled synergy
parallel pipeline
risk evaluation
risk degree
