摘要
当代青年生育意愿的低迷引起学界广泛关注。然而目前青年群体生育意愿的低迷究竟是属于个体生命周期中的年龄效应,还是可以归结为他们独特的代际人口特征,抑或是剧烈社会变迁所导致,依然需要深入探讨。文章基于中国青年网民社会心态追踪调查数据(2012~2021),采用生命历程理论视角和APC模型,探讨了青年群体生育意愿在年龄、时期和世代三个维度上的变化趋势。统计分析发现,年龄与生育意愿呈现倒U型关系;青年群体表达的生育意愿在2012~2021十年间整体上随时间推移而下降;越年轻的世代,其网络表达的生育意愿越低。研究表明,青年群体生育意愿的低迷是个人生命周期、社会变迁和世代更替共同作用的结果。从世代效应与时期效应的对比来看,时期效应是导致青年群体生育意愿下降的主要动力机制。影响生育意愿下降的主要因素并非世代更替所带来的深层次生育观念变迁,而是外部社会经济环境的形塑。在构建生育友好型的社会政策及发展型家庭政策时,需要切实考虑当代青年的生存和发展现状,减轻生育成本,优化生育环境,进一步释放生育潜力。
The depressed fertility intention of contemporary young people has aroused extensive attention.Based on the Social Mentality Survey of Chinese Young Netizens,this paper explores the trend of the youth group's fertility intention expressed on the network.It is found that fertility intention expressed by young people decreased over time from 2012 to 2021.Meanwhile,the more recent cohort expressed the lower fertility willingness on the Internet.The low fertility intention of contemporary young people is the result of individual life cycle,social change and cohort replace.Among the above factors,the period effect is the main dynamic mechanism leading to the decline of young people's fertility intention.To some extent,the main factor influencing the decline of fertility intention is not the cultural change brought by cohort replacement,but the restriction of the external social and economic environment.
作者
赵凤
陈李伟
桂勇
ZHAO Feng;CHEN Li-wei;GUI Yong(School of Management Studies,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China;School of Social Development and Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《西北人口》
北大核心
2023年第2期54-66,共13页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“城市中产阶层女性性别角色观念与二孩生育意愿”(项目编号:2020BSH001)的阶段性成果。
关键词
青年
生育意愿
年龄
时期
世代
Youth
Fertility Intention
Age
Period
Cohort
