摘要
【目的】西藏是中国气候资源最多样与果树资源最丰富的区域之一,分析西藏最适宜栽培区——林芝的苹果花期与气象条件的关系及其对气候变化的响应,选取主导影响气候因子,构建花期预测回归模型,为当地应对气候变化和开展苹果花期气象服务提供科技支撑。【方法】利用2001—2021年林芝苹果花期物候和逐日平均气温(Tm)、最高气温(Tmax)、最低气温(Tmin)、相对湿度(RH)、降水量(Pr)、日照时数(S)和≥0℃积温(∑T0)等数据,采用线性倾向估计法、Pearson相关系数和逐步回归方法等,分析苹果花期物候及其长度的变化趋势,以及气候因子、晚霜冻对苹果花期的影响,并开展苹果花期预测,构建花期预测回归模型。【结果】2001—2021年林芝苹果各花期以0.884~1.132d·a-1的速度呈推迟趋势,以花芽膨大期推迟的最多,开花始期次之,为1.058d·a-1。花期长度为显著缩短趋势,平均每年缩短0.471d。花期生长期内Tm、Tmax、Tmin均趋于升高,Tmin升幅大于Tmax升幅;DTR、S、RH趋于减少。始花期之前,Pr为增加趋势,之后Pr趋于减少。花期长度生长期内,只有Tm、Tmin表现为上升趋势,其他要素均趋于下降,以∑T0减幅最为明显。【结论】上年10月Pr是影响林芝苹果始花期、盛花期变化的主导气候因子,若上年10月Pr每增加(减少)10mm,苹果始花期和盛花期将分别提前(推迟)2.47d和2.17d。花期晚霜冻日趋于提前,且低温降低,但开花期明显推迟,花期霜冻的气候风险变小。基于旬、月气候要素的统计模型,预测苹果花期精准度为95.8%~97.1%。
【Objective】Tibet has one of the most diverse climatic resources and the richest fruit tree re-sources in China.Nyingchi is the most suitable cultivation area for the growth of fruit trees.This study aimed to establish a regression model for flowering prediction with the leading climatic factors influenc-ing apple growth in Nyingchi,through analysis of the relationship between the apple flowering phases and meteorological conditions and its response to climate change,in order to provide scientific and tech-nological support for adaptation of apple production to climate change,together with prediction servic-es for apple flowering phases over the Tibetan Plateau.【Methods】Both phenology and meteorological data were collected in Nyingchi station from 2001 to 2021.The apple’s flowering phases included the flower bud enlargement date(FED),flower bud opening date(FOD),initial flowering date(IFD),full blooming date(FBD)and terminal flowering date(TFD),while the meteorological data included daily average temperature(Tm),maximum temperature(Tmax),minimum temperature(Tmin),relative humidity(RH),precipitation(Pr),sunshine hours(S)and≥0℃cumulative temperature(∑T0)etc..The trends of apple flowering and the influences of climatic factors on the flowering phases were revealed with rel-evant statistical methods,including the linear propensity estimation method,the Pearson correlation co-efficient,and the stepwise regression method,and the apple flowering prediction were carried out ac-cordingly.【Results】(1)The apple flowering phases had been delayed at a rate of 0.884-1.132 d·a-1 in Nyingchi of Tibet from 2001 to 2021,among them the flower bud enlargement dates were delayed the most,followed by IFD at a rate of 1.058 d·a-1(p<0.01),and TFD the least.The length of flowering pe-riod was shortened significantly by a rate of 0.471 d d·a-1(p<0.05).While the IFD advanced signifi-cantly in the main apple producing areas in China such as Xinjiang,Loess Plateau and Bohai Gulf,the IFD postponed prominently in Nyingchi
作者
杜军
次旺
白宇轩
索朗旺堆
王挺
DU Jun;Tgewang;BAI Yuxuan;Sonam Wangdoi;WANG Ting(Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research/Tibet Open Laboratory of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Research,Lhasa 850001,Tibet,China;Field Science Experiment Base for Comprehensive Observation of Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog County,CMA,Mêdog 860700,Tibet,China;Tibet Autonomous Region Climate Centre,Lhasa 850001,Tibet,China;Nyingchi Meteorological Service of Tibet,Nyingchi 860000,Tibet,China)
出处
《果树学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第5期1013-1023,共11页
Journal of Fruit Science
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0106)
中国气象科学研究院青藏高原与极地气象科学研究所开放课题(ITPP2021K03)
西藏自治区科技创新基地自主研究项目(XZ2021JR0001G)
西藏自治区科技重点研发计划项目(XZ202001ZY0023N)。
关键词
苹果
西藏林芝
花期
变化
气候影响因子
预测模型
Malus pumila
Nyingchi,Tibet
Flowering phase
Change
Climatic influence factor
Pre-diction model
