摘要
基于成都市2004-2017年桂花物候观测与气象资料,运用相关分析法和因子分析法开展成都市秋桂花前四周气象因子研究,结果表明:①开花期与花前第1周平均最低气温、降水量呈负相关,花前1周日最低气温高,降雨充沛则利于加快秋桂开花进程。②采用因子分析法提取了温光主成分、降雨主成分,温光主成分与秋桂开花期关系最为密切,温度对秋桂开花起主导作用。③运用第1主成分与第2主成分的方差贡献率建立了花期综合评价得分模型,花前第4周(7月下旬至8月中旬)是影响秋桂开花的重要影响周期,同时是秋桂花芽分化完成的重要时期,花芽分化完成的早晚可影响秋桂开花的早晚。相关分析法和因子分析法两种方法综合运用可以更好地反映气象因子之间的相互关系,揭示气象因子对秋桂开花的影响规律,为成都市秋桂花期气象服务提供了科技支撑。
Correlation analysis and factor analysis are used to study the relationship between the flowering of autumn osmanthus and the meteorological factors four weeks before flowering,based on the osmanthus phenology data and the meteorological data from 2004 to 2017 in Chengdu.The results show:(1)There is a negative correlation between the flowering stage and the average minimum temperature and precipitation in one week before flowering.The higher the minimum temperature in the week before flowering,the more abundant the precipitation,and the earlier the flowering is.(2)The main components of temperature and light and rainfall are extracted by factor analysis.The main components of temperature and light are most closely related to the flowering period of autumn osmanthus,and temperature played a leading role in the flowering of autumn osmanthus.(3)A score model for the comprehensive evaluation of flowering period is established by using the variance contribution rate of the first principal component and the second principal component.The period of 4 weeks before flowering(from late July to mid-August)is an important period for flowering,and also for the completion of flower bud differentiation.The comprehensive application of correlation analysis and factor analysis can better reflect the relationship between meteorological factors and the flowering of autumn osmanthus,reveal the influence of meteorological factors on the flowering,and provide scientific and technological supports for the meteorological service for autumn osmanthus flowering in Chengdu.
作者
陈乐
陈林
王明田
CHEN Le;CHEN Lin;WANG Mingtian(Chengdu Agricultural Test Meteorological Station,Chengdu 611130;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072;Sichuan Key Laboratory of Water Saving Agriculture Research in Southern Hill Areas,Chengdu 610066)
出处
《气象科技》
2020年第5期774-778,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-重点-05-09)资助。
关键词
秋桂
开花期
相关分析
因子分析
autumn osmanthus
flowering period
meteorological factor
