摘要
基于FAO的食物生产和贸易数据、Google的GDELT事件数据,通过测算中国食物对外依赖率、地缘关系强度、食物对外依赖风险指数,从地缘关系视角考察中国食物进口的对外依赖风险。研究表明:中国的食物进口主要源自世界五大洲,其中大豆进口依赖美洲、牛肉进口依赖南美洲和大洋洲、婴儿食品进口依赖欧洲、棕榈油进口依赖亚洲、大麦进口依赖欧洲和大洋洲;在进口依赖率提高与地缘关系强度减弱的共同影响下,中国对巴西、新西兰、印度尼西亚、乌克兰等国的食物进口依赖风险逐渐扩大,而对澳大利亚、乌拉圭、加拿大的食物进口依赖风险剧烈波动。因此,我国在增强食物自给能力的同时,应不断拓宽食物进口渠道,降低贸易风险,并积极参与世界粮农治理,把握食物安全的主动权。
Based on FAO′s food production and trade data and Google′s GDELT event data,this paper measures the dependence rate of China′s food on importing,the strength of geopolitical relations,and the risk index of food dependence on foreign countries,and examines the risk of China′s food dependence on foreign countries from a geopolitical perspective.The results show that China imports foods mainly from five continents of the world,among which,soybean from the Americas,beef South America and Oceania,baby food Europe,palm oil Asia,barley Europe and Oceania.Under the co-impact of increasing of import dependence rate and the weakening of geographical relationship,China′s risk of import dependence on Brazil,New Zealand,France,Germany,Indonesian,and Ukrainian has been gradually expanding,while the risk of import dependence on Australia and Uruguay and Canada has been wildly fluctuating.Therefore,while enhancing food self-sufficiency,China should expand food import channels,reduce trade risks,and actively participate in world food and agriculture governance to grasp the initiative of food security.
作者
宋海英
王靖
SONG Hai-ying;WANG Jing(School of International Business,Zhejiang International Studies University,Hangzhou 310023,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of Science&Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)
出处
《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2023年第3期1-9,共9页
Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(22BJY086)。
关键词
大食物观
食物进口
地缘关系
对外依赖风险
big food concept
food import
geopolitical relations
risk of dependence on foreign countries
