摘要
基于营养源视角,运用灰色关联方法考量中国食物自给率及其影响因素。结果发现:1961—2013年中国综合食物自给率整体呈下降趋势,2000-2005年呈现明显的倒"U"形变化。从其结构而言,产品间差异较大;就其影响因素而言,生产、消费、贸易环节各主要影响因素的影响效应各有差异。测算显示,根据目前的生产布局,到2020年除谷物、糖料、蔬菜作物的自给率上升外,大豆、油料、肉类自给率将持续下降。
Based on a perspective of nutrition source,China’s food self-sufficiency rate influence factors are estimated by adopting the Grey-correlation analysis method.It shows that,in 1961-2013,China’s overall food self-sufficiency rate has declined.In 2000-2005,it showed a reversed U-sharp trend.In terms of food structure,the gap between different products is significant.Also,factors such as food production,consumption,and trade have contrasting impacts on China’s food self-sufficiency.It is predicted that the self-sufficiency rates of soybeans,oil crops,and meat will be continuously deteriorated in 2020 under the current distribution of China’s food production,except for those of grains,sugar crops,and vegetables,which show a growing trend.
作者
刘慕华
LIU Muhua(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan,Hunan 441000,China)
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期142-148,共7页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD052)
国家社会科学青年基金(13CJY071)
湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2017B246)
关键词
营养源
食物自给率
库存变化
影响因素
nutrition source
food self-sufficiency rate
stock change
influence factors
