摘要
根据IPCC碳排放测算方法,基于农业物资投入、农田土壤利用、肠道发酵及粪便管理4类农业碳排放源,测算了云南省2011—2020年农业碳排放量,结合Kaya恒等式和LMDI模型,分析农业碳排放直接影响因素,运用情景分析法预测2021—2030年农业碳排放量。结果表明:2020年云南省农业碳排放量670.31万t,2011—2020年云南省农业碳排放总量呈先平稳上升后不稳定下降趋势,其中农业物资投入是农业碳排放最大贡献源;农业生产效率对农业碳减排起到重要作用,地区经济发展水平是农业碳排放量增加的主要原因;预测严格减排情景下2021—2030年农业碳排放量最小。据此,从农地翻耕、化肥施用、畜禽养殖等方面提出农业碳减排建议,以期助力我国“双碳”目标的实现。
In this paper,according to the IPCC carbon emission measurement method,based on 4 types of agricultural carbon emission sources,namely agricultural material input,farmland soil utilization,enteric fermentation and manure management,the agricultural carbon emission in Yunnan Province from 2011 to 2020 was calculated,and the Kaya identity was combined with the LMDI model to analyze the direct influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions,and use scenario analysis to predict agricultural carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030.The results show that:in 2020,the agricultural carbon emissions in Yunnan Province were 6.7031 million t,and the total agricultural carbon emissions increased steadily and then fluctuated down.Among them,the greatest contribution of agricultural carbon emission sources is the input of agricultural materials;the contribution of agricultural production efficiency to carbon emissions emission reduction plays an important role,and the level of regional economic development is the main reason for the increase in agricultural carbon emissions;it is predicted that under the strict emission reduction scenario,agricultural carbon emissions are minimal during 2021-2030.As a result,suggestions on reducing agricultural carbon emissions from farmland ploughing,fertilizer application,and livestock and poultry breeding are put forward,in order to help achieve the′double carbon′goal in China.
作者
李倩
付伟
李梦柯
Li Qian;Fu Wei;Li Mengke(College of Economics and Management,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming Yunnan 650233,China)
出处
《西南林业大学学报（社会科学）》
CAS
2023年第3期75-81,共7页
Journal of Southwest Forestry University(Social Sciences)
基金
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目(2022y625)
国家自然基金(72264035)资助。
关键词
农业碳排放
碳排放强度
碳排放源
云南省
agricultural carbon emission
carbon emission intensity
carbon emission source
Yunnan Province
