摘要
为研究重特大护栏类交通事故(MGTA)的形成致因,依据人、车、路、环、管5类事故特征进行深度数据挖掘,构建MGTA核心风险因素体系。基于DEMATEL(决策试验与评价实验室)分析法与ISM(解释结构模型)法的集成分析,确定了事故关键核心风险因素及因素间的因果关系、作用路径和层级结构。结果表明:MGTA形成是风险因素间相互耦合作用的结果,驾驶人因素和管理因素是事故预防的重要根源;安全意识薄弱、违反道路规则行驶、操作不当、超速行驶、驾驶人监管疏漏和车辆监管疏漏是影响事故形成的关键核心风险因素,其中驾驶人监管疏漏和车辆监管疏漏为关键根源因素,具有高驱动性。
A core risk factor system of major guardrail-type traffic accidents(MGTA)was constructed by using deeply data mining(DM)to investigated the formation causes of the MGTA,according to the characteristics of five types of accidents:men,vehicles,roads,environments and managements.The key core risk factors and their causal relationships,action paths and hierarchical structures were determined based on the integrated analysis of the DEMATEL(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory)method and the Interpretive Structural Model(ISM).The results show that the MGTA formation is the result of the coupling between the risk factors;and the driver factors and management factors are the important source of accident prevention.Weak security awareness,driving against road rules,improper operation,speeding,driver supervision omissions and vehicle supervision omissions are the key core risk factors affecting the accident formation,among them,driver supervision omission and vehicle supervision omission are the key root causes,which have high driving force.
作者
程宇峰
邹铁方
李平凡
CHENG Yufeng;ZOU Tiefang;LI Pingfan(Yangtze Delta Region Branch of China National Institute of Standardization,Jiaxing 314000,China;School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Traffic Management Research Institute,Ministry of Public Security,Wuxi 214151,China)
出处
《汽车安全与节能学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期165-172,共8页
Journal of Automotive Safety and Energy
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51775056)。
