摘要
在2019年11月的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)第三次领导人会议上,印度做出了退出RCEP的决定,引起了国内外学者的广泛关注。本文通过随机前沿贸易引力模型和全球价值链显性比较优势两种实证分析发现:一方面,尽管从贸易潜力的角度分析印度与RCEP成员国有较大的贸易潜力,有理由加入RCEP,但印度与大多数RCEP国家存在巨额贸易赤字,加入后必将增大其贸易赤字;另一方面,在全球价值链分工上,与同处于价值链上游的RCEP成员国相比,印度在农业领域、制造业领域、化学领域等处于竞争劣势。再加上国内的政治保守倾向,印度最终选择退出RCEP。
At the Third Leaders’Summit of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)in November 2019,India decided to withdraw from RCEP,which attracted extensive attention from scholars worldwide Using two empirical methods of the stochastic frontier gravity model of trade and the explicit comparative advantage of global value chains,the authors find that:India has a significant trade potential with most of the RCEP member countries,and it seems that it is sensible for India to join RCEP However,India has a huge trade deficit with most RCEP countries,and joining it will undoubtedly increase India’s trade deficit Moreover,regarding the division of labor in the global value chains,India is at a competitive disadvantage compared with other RCEP member countries in the upstream of the value chains,including fields such as agriculture,manufacturing,and chemistry In addition,India’s domestic political conservatism led to its eventual withdrawal These are the reasons for India’s seemingly contradictory choice as regards most regional organizations.
作者
陈本昌
李珂睿
Chen Benchang;Li Kerui(Liaoning University School of International)
出处
《区域国别学刊》
2023年第2期104-122,158,159,共21页
COUNTRY AND AREA STUDIES
基金
2020年度国家社科基金重大项目“建设面向东北亚开放合作高地与推进新时代东北振兴研究”(项目编号:20&ZD097)
辽宁省兴辽英才计划项目“新国际政治经济学建设”(项目编号:XLYC2002042)的阶段性研究成果。
