摘要
本文运用CGE模型,对TPP和FTAAP对APEC成员、特别是中美日韩可能造成的影响进行评估。结果显示,不包含中韩的TPP将使两国经济受到冲击,而加入FTAAP将为两国带来较显著的收益;已加入TPP谈判的成员将获益于TPP,但在FTAAP下的总收益更高.中国加入TPP将在使自身获益的同时,促进美日两国的收益。产业层面,加入TPP或FTAAP将使中国农产品、纺织服装和电子行业的产出和贸易实现增长,汽车业将受冲击。美国几乎全部行业的产出和进出口将因TPP和FTAAP而增加。日本农业部门多数将受到冲击,纺织和汽车部门受益,电子和其他运输设备在中韩参与的情形下将受冲击,而韩国的重要行业在FTAAP方案下才能获益。美国亚太战略的调整决定其近期会重点推进TPP,中国在主张循序渐进推进FTAAP的同时,更现实的策略是深化东亚经济合作,并谋求构建以中国为核心的亚太"轮轴-辐条"型FTA网络。
We cast analysis on the economic effects of TPP and FTAAP on APEC members,particularly on the US,China,Japan and Korea,based on CGE models.The results indicate that,a TPP excluding China and Korea will bring shocks on the two economies,but the two economies will benefit from FTAAP.The economies which have participated TPP negotiation will gain from TPP as well,yet a larger scoped FTAAP will bring higher gains.China will also obtain benefits via participating TPP,meanwhile promote the gains obtained by the US and Japan.On the industry perspective,the outputs and trade volumes from agriculture sectors,textile and clothing and electronic product sectors in China will increase,in the cases that China participate TPP or FTAAP.Most of the US industries will obtain growth in output and trade,while in Japan,the majority of agricultural sectors will suffer from TPP or FTAAP,sectors such as textile and automobile will be promoted,while the electronic products and other vehicles might suffer shocks from China and Korea.Yet in terms of Korea,its key industries will be promoted only in the case of FTAAP,if it denies attending TPP.The latest adjustment of US Asia-Pacific Strategy indicates that US will focus on TPP in the coming years.China at current stage should promote FTAAP in a gradual way,but pushing forward East Asian Economic Cooperation,and constructing a Hub-Spokes styled FTA networks in the Asian-Pacific Area seems to be more pragmatic.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期83-95,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(批准号:1ZYJC790151)
