摘要
目的:探讨黑骨藤追风活络胶囊治疗寒痹证膝骨关节炎3月内短期疗效影响因素并建立临床预测模型。方法:回顾性收集2019年1月-2021年12月贵州中医药大学第一、二附属医院确诊KOA患者120例和60例分别作为建模组和验证组,通过最小绝对收缩选择算子(LASSO)回归分析筛选预后独立影响因素,构建列线图预测模型,通过绘制ROC曲线Calibration Plot和临床决策曲线评估模型预测能力,并进行内部验证及外部验证评价模型的准确性。结果:初始治疗的CRP(0CRP)、初始治疗的ESR(0ESR)、病程、是否滑膜水肿、年龄是KOA患者预后的独立危险因素(P<0.05);通过列线图模型评估及内部与外部验证证明模型有较好的校准度、区分度及临床有效性。结论:成功建立寒痹证KOA临床预测模型,能有效评估黑骨藤追风活络胶囊治疗寒痹证KOA的预后结局。
Objective:To analyze the related factors of heiguteng zhuifeng huoluo capsule in the treatment of knee osteo-arthritis(KOA)with cold bi syndrome,and to build a short-term efficacy prediction model within 3months.Methods:120and 60KOA patients diagnosed in the First and Second Hospital Affiliated to Guizhou University of Chinese medi-cine from January 2019to December 2021were retrospectively collected as the modeling group and validation group,re-spectively.Screen independent prognostic factors through LASSO regression analysis,build a nomogram prediction model,draw ROC curve,calibration plot and decision curve analysis curve to evaluate the predictive ability of the mod-el,and conduct internal and external verification to evaluate the accuracy of the model.Results:Initially treated CRP(0CRP),initial treated ESR(0ESR),disease duration,synovial edema,and age were independent risk factors for the prognosis of KOA patients(P<0.05).Through nomogram model evaluation,internal and external validation proved that the model has good calibration,discrimination and clinical validity.Conclusion:Successfully established a clinical prediction model for KOA of cold bi syndrome,which can effectively evaluate the prognosis of heiguteng zhuifeng huoluo capsule in the treatment of Cold Bi Syndrome KOA.
作者
陈大琳
梁江
刘卓枫
卢云
余谦
韩志
蒋宗辰
Chen Dalin;Liang Jiang;Liu Zhuofeng;Lu Yun;Yu Qian;Han Zhi;Jiang Zongchen(Guizhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guiyang 550025,China;The First Hospital Affiliated to Guizhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guiyang 550001,China;The Second Hospital Affiliated to Guizhou University of Chinese Medicine,Guiyang 550003,China)
出处
《亚太传统医药》
2023年第4期60-64,共5页
Asia-Pacific Traditional Medicine
基金
贵州中医药大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(贵中医大创合字[2020]14)
贵州省中医药管理局“十四五”重点培育学科项目(QZYYZDXK[PY]-2021-04)
贵州省自然科学基金(黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般473)
贵阳市科技局项目(筑科合同[2022]-4-3)。
关键词
膝骨关节炎
黑骨藤追风活络胶囊
临床预测模型
Knee Osteoarthritis
Heiguteng Zhuifeng Huoluo Capsule
Clinical Prediction Model
