摘要
[目的]气候变化对自然环境和人类活动产生重要影响,厘清全球变化背景下极端气候灾害发生的频次和强度对于维护人民生命财产安全具有重要意义。[方法]根据1970-2017年秦巴山地内102个气象站点的逐日数据,运用线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、反距离权重法(IDW)、Z指数法和Morlet小波变换等方法,分析近48年秦巴山地气候变化特征及西部大起伏高山区、秦岭大起伏高中山区、大巴山大起伏中山区和豫西汉中中山谷地4个地貌单元上的区域旱涝灾害响应研究。[结果]近48年来秦巴山地气温以0.3℃/10 a增加,降水以0.87 mm/10 a的速率增加,全区气候朝暖湿化趋势发展。研究时段内,不同地形区气温都呈上升趋势,但增加速率不同,大巴山大起伏中山区增速最大(0.7℃/10 a)、豫西汉中中山谷地最低(0.2℃/10 a),从降水量及变化趋势来看,大巴山大起伏中山区降水量明显高于其他地形区,变化倾向率最大(13.45 mm/10 a),西部大起伏高山区变化倾向率最低为0.06 mm/10 a。秦巴山地旱涝灾害发生的程度年际差异明显,且1970-2017年有加剧的趋势,4个区域旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应存在差异:大巴山大起伏中山区旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应表现为总体偏涝,涝灾出现的频率与强度均有加剧态势;豫西汉中中山谷地、秦岭大起伏高中山区及西部大起伏高山区总体表现为偏旱,旱灾频率和强度明显高于涝灾。[结论]1997-2017年秦巴山地呈暖湿化现象,极端气候事件的频率和强度呈增加趋势,研究结论为不同区域分类、分级制定水土保持规划提供依据。
[Objective]Climate change has had an important impact on the natural environment and human activities,and it is important to clarify the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters in the context of global change to maintain the safety of people′s lives and property.[Methods]According to the daily data of 102 meteorological stations in Qinlin-Daba Mountains from 1970 to 2017,linear regression,inverse distance weighting(IDW)and Z-index method transform were used to analyze the climate change characteristics of the Qinlin-Daba Mountains in the pas 48 years.The responses of regional drought and flood disasters in the four highland areas of the great undulating high mountains in the western Qinling-Daba Mountains,the great undulating middle-high mountains in Qinling Mountains,the great undulating middle mountains in Daba Mountains,and the middle mountains and lower valleys of the Hanzhong in the west of Henan were examined,and the spatial difference of drought and flood disasters in the area was further analyzed.[Results]The temperature in Qinlin-Daba Mountains increased by 0.3℃/decade in the pas 48 years,and the precipitation increased at a rate of 0.87 mm/decade.The climate of the whole area were warming and humidifying.In the pasT_(4)8 years,the temperature in different terrains had been increasing,but the rates of increase were different.The growth rate of the great undulating middle mountains in the Daba Mountains was the largest(0.7℃/decade),and the growth rate of lower valleys of the Hanzhong in the west of Henan was the least(0.2℃/decade).In terms of the trend of the precipitation changes,the precipitation in the central and the great undulating middle mountains in Daba Mountainswas significantly higher than that in other topographic areas,with the highest change tendency(13.45 mm/decade),and change tendency in lower valleys of the Hanzhong in the west of Henan was 0.06 mm/decade.The inter-annual differences in the occurrence of droughts and floods in Qinlin-Daba Mountains were obvious,and th
作者
李理
刘俊杰
朱文博
王丽园
朱连奇
REGMI Balmukunda
LI Li;LIU Junjie;ZHU Wenbo;WANG Liyuan;ZHU Lianqi;REGMI Balmukunda(School of Government,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Geography and Environment Science,Henan University,Kaifeng,Henan 475004,China;Department of Pharmacy,Institute of Medicine,Tribhuvan University,Maharajgunj,Kathmandu 44606,Nepal)
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第3期318-326,共9页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点研发计划(2021YFE0106700)
国家自然科学基金项目(41671090)
科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY100902)。
关键词
气候变化
旱涝灾害
线性回归
秦巴山地
climate change
drought and flood disaster
linear regression
Qinlin-Daba Mountains
