摘要
冬小麦(Triticum aestivum)是黄土高原的主要粮食作物。研究气候变暖对黄土高原冬小麦种植的影响,可为冬小麦种植的合理布局、应对气候变化带来的风险提供科学的理论依据。选择黄土高原及周边66个气象站点1960—2015年逐日气温资料,采用冬季负积温、最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温3个指标,运用多元线性回归模型、气候倾向率、累积距平法及积温指标法等方法,分析了3个指标的时间变化特征及气候变暖对黄土高原冬小麦种植及适播期的影响。结果表明:(1)在气候变暖的大背景下,冬季负积温呈极显著的减少趋势,最冷月平均气温和年极端最低气温呈显著的升高趋势,且冬季负积温是影响黄土高原地区冬小麦种植的主要限制因子;(2)1960—2015年黄土高原冬小麦年代际可种植区以北移西扩的趋势稳定扩大,冬小麦可种植的海拔上限在黄土高原西部陇中黄土高原地区呈73 m/(10 a)的速率升高,56年来冬小麦可种植的平均海拔升高约321 m,长城沿线冬小麦的种植北界北移至38.73oN附近;(3)冬小麦的种植面积逐年代际增加,2000s比1960s增加13.23×10~4 km2,增加约1.8倍;(4)冬小麦适播期呈推迟趋势,推迟天数集中在1~10 d,为保障冬小麦安全越冬,建议播种日期在目前的基础上向后推迟4~13 d。
As the main grain crop on the Loess Plateau,winter wheat(Triticum aesti^um)is important for the security of food production.We must understand the effect of climate warming on winter wheat of the Loess Plateau,to provide scientific theory basis for the rational distribution of winter wheat and deal with the risks of climate change.In this paper,the daily temperature data of66meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau and it,s surrounding area were selected.Three indices were used,including the negative accumulated temperature in winter,average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature.The time variation of three indices and the influence of climate change on the planting of winter wheat were analyzed in the paper using the multiple linear regression model,liner trend estimation,accumulated variance method and accumulated temperature.The results showed that,(1)Under the background of climate warming,the negative accumulated temperature in winter showed a significant decreasing trend,while the average monthly temperature in January and extreme minimum temperature showed a significant increasing trend,and the negative accumulated temperature in winter is the key factor for the winter wheat in the region.(2)From1960to2015,the winter wheat cultivable area expanded to the north and west of the Loess Plateau.On the Longzhong Loess plateau,the west of loess plateau,the upper limit of the winter wheat cultivable elevation increased by73m/(10a).The average elevation of winter wheat can be planted rose about321m,and the north boundary of winter wheat planting,along the Great Wall,north forward to near38.73°N.(3)The winter wheat cultivable area increased by decade from1960s to2000s,increased13.23x104km2,which is1.8times to1960s.And(4)the suitable sowing date of winter wheat was delayed,mainly at1?10d.In order to ensure the security of wheat in winter,it is suggested that sowing date be delayed4~13dthannow.
作者
吴乾慧
张勃
马彬
唐敏
王国强
贾艳青
WU Qianhui;ZHANG Bo;MA Bin;TANG Min;WANG Guoqiang;JIA Yanqing(College of Geography and Environment Science of Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China)
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期429-436,共8页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41561024)
高校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20136203110002)
生态经济学省级重点学科(5001-021)
关键词
黄土高原
冬小麦
可种植区
适播期
the Loess Plateau
winter wheat
cultivable area
suitable sowing
