摘要
文章以新阶段新发展理念为指引,立足于“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”五个维度,选取34个指标构建省际可比的经济高质量发展评价体系,运用CRITIC-TOPSIS法对中国31个省份2008—2019年经济高质量发展水平进行测算与分析。研究发现:中国整体的经济高质量发展水平显著提升,但分维度、分地区发展水平差异较大;地区间创新、开放维度差异较大,协调和绿色维度相对均衡,共享维度高低错落。各区域内泰尔指数变化显示:东部地区各省份的经济高质量发展差距大,且呈扩大趋势;中部地区与东北地区各省份经济高质量发展水平差异较小,且相对稳定;西部地区各省份经济高质量发展水平内部差距逐渐缩小,发展失衡得到有效控制。根据指数平滑法得到的2025年预测值,各省份经济高质量发展指数均得到提升,区域差距还可能进一步扩大。
Guided by the new development concept of the new stage and based on the five dimensions of“innovation,coordination,greenness,openness and sharing”,this paper selects 34 indicators to construct an inter-provincial comparable high-quality economic development evaluation system,and also uses CRITIC-TOPSIS method to measure and analyze the high-quality economic development level of 31 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019.The results show that overall level of high-quality economic development in China has been significantly improved,but that the level of development varies greatly by dimension and region,and the dimensions of innovation and openness vary greatly between regions,the coordination and green dimensions relatively balanced,the sharing dimension staggered.The change of the Theil index in various regions is shown as below:The gap of high-quality economic development in the eastern provinces is large and shows a widening trend.The difference of the high-quality economic development level between the central and the northeastern provinces is small and relatively stable.The internal gap of the high-quality economic development level between the provinces in the western region has gradually narrowed,and the imbalance in development has been effectively controlled.According to the 2025 forecast obtained by the exponential smoothing method,the high-quality economic development index of all provinces has been improved,and the regional gap is likely to widen further.
作者
王利军
陈梦冬
Wang Lijun;Chen Mengdong(School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Technology;Hubei Research Center for Circular Economy Development,Wuhan 430068,China;School of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第6期87-91,共5页
Statistics & Decision
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71804043)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC790200)。
