摘要
针对隧道内并行油气管道风险分析存在的不确定性,提出一种基于云模型的风险评价方法:根据并行管道运行过程中潜在的危害因素,建立了管道间影响因素指标体系,包括并行间距、介质流速、隧道通风性、隧道长度、管径、应急响应时间、上下游截断阀间距、管道运行压力以及邻管壁厚;采用改进层次分析法与熵权法相结合的形式确定评价指标的主客观权重,通过差异系数调和法得到组合权重;根据各等级区间划分得到标准评价云,结合其权重得到隧道并行管道的云数字特征;通过云图以及相近度计算得出各隧道并行油气管道间影响因素风险等级。应用该方法评价中国某3条隧道内并行油气管道间风险,结果显示隧道2的风险最高,并给出了相应缓解措施。
In view of the uncertainties in the risk analysis of parallel oil and gas pipelines in tunnel,a risk evaluation method based on cloud model was developed.Specifically,an indicator system of inter-pipeline infuencing factors was established based on the potential hazard factors in the operation of parallel pipelines,including the parallel spacing,medium flow rate,tunnel ventilation,tunnel length,pipe diameter,emergency response time,spacing of upstream and downstream cut-off valves,pipe operating pressure and neighboring pipe wall thickness.The objective and subjective weights of the evaluation indicators were determined using the improved hierarchical analysis and entropy weighting method in combination,and the combined weights were obtained by the difference coefficient reconciliation method.The standard evaluation cloud was obtained according to the division of each grade interval,and then the cloud digital characteristics of the parallel pipelines in tunnel were obtained by combining their weights.Besides,the risk levels of the influencing factors between each parallel oil and gas pipeline in tunnel were calculated by the cloud map and the similarity.The method was applied to evaluate the risk between parallel oil and gas pipelines in three tunnels in China.The results show that the risk in Tunnel 2 is the highest,and the appropriate mitigation measures are provided accordingly.
作者
王彬彬
张兴龙
李开鸿
侯浩
沈豪
WANG Binbin;ZHANG Xinglong;LI Kaihong;HOU Hao;SHEN Hao(PipeChina Southwest Pipeline Company;School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University)
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2023年第3期298-305,共8页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
基金
国家管网集团西南管道有限责任公司科学研究与技术开发项目“中缅天然气管道失效对相邻管道的影响与防控技术研究”,2020B-3106-0502。
关键词
并行油气管道
隧道
风险评价
云模型
组合赋权
管道间影响因素
指标体系
parallel oil and gas pipelines
tunnel
risk evaluation
cloud model
combination weighting
inter-pipeline influencing factor
indicator system
