摘要
国际能源治理体系呈现“碎片化”和“无序化”趋势,全球能源发展进入重大变革期。基于“世界与中国能源展望”模型,针对全球能源转型发展新形势,设计了可持续转型、能源独立和新能源加速3种碳中和情景,在有关中国人口、经济增长、产业结构和技术进步的假设基础上,系统模拟了大变局对中国实现碳达峰、碳中和目标路径的影响。研究表明,在不同情景下,中国能源需求将在2030-2035年达到42.8亿~43.8亿吨标准油峰值,之后维持在40亿吨标准油以上水平,其中煤炭、石油与天然气等化石能源需求将先后达峰,达峰后需求快速下降,非化石能源则逐步成为能源和电力供应主体。为保障能源转型的顺利推进,需持续提升能源供给质量,把握好能源转型节奏,加强低碳、零碳、负碳技术的创新,加快规划建设新型能源体系,大力推进能源与关键矿产的国际合作,实现开放条件下的中国能源安全。
The international energy governance system presents the trend towards being fragmented and disorderly as well as the global energy development has entered a period of major changes.Based on the World and China Energy Outlook model,three carbon neutrality scenarios,namely sustainable transition,energy independence,and new energy acceleration,are designed in view of the new situation of global energy transition development.According to the assumptions of China’s population,economic growth,industrial structure,and technological progress,it systematically simulates the impact of major changes on the path of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in China.The research shows that under different scenarios,China’s energy demand will peak at 4.28-4.38 billion tons of oil standard around 2030-2035,and then remain above 4 billion tons of oil standard,among which such fossil energy as coal,oil and gas will successively peak and then decline rapidly,while nonfossil energy will gradually become the main source of energy and power supply.To ensure the smooth promotion of the energy transition,it is necessary to continuously improve the quality of energy supply,grasp the pace of the energy transition,strengthen the innovation of low-carbon,zero-carbon and negative carbon emission technologies,accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system,vigorously promote international cooperation in energy and key minerals,and achieve energy security under open conditions.
作者
向征艰
王利宁
朱兴珊
姚子修
丁世强
XIANG Zhengjian;WANG Lining;ZHU Xingshan;YAO Zixiu;DING Shiqiang(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;CNPC Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Market Simulation and Price Forecast;CNPC Planning Department)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2023年第2期15-22,共8页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
碳达峰碳中和
能源转型
能源安全
能源供需
非化石能源
carbon neutrality and carbon peaking
energy transition
energy security
energy supply and demand
non-fossil energy
