摘要
近年来,美国大战略的深层调整成为备受学界关注的理论和现实问题:无论是特朗普政府对自由主义传统的背离,还是拜登政府执政后自由主义的重振乏力,都表明美国大战略已走到一个重要拐点。为了对此进行论证,本文将以三大既有研究范式——国际体系中心范式、新古典现实主义和国内政治中心范式——为基础,构建一个由权力、政治和结构互动形成的分析框架,重释美国大战略的演化逻辑与历史周期。在该框架中,权力决定了美国大战略底色,国内政治博弈与国际体系结构则交互驱动着其演化。在权力崛起/强势期,美国大战略底色是扩张,其演化由国内政治博弈驱动。在权力衰落/弱势期,美国大战略底色是收缩,其演化由国际体系结构驱动。基于此,美国大战略的历史周期将被重划为三个“75年”:(1)权力弱势—收缩底色下由国际体系多极结构塑造的孤立主义周期(1789~1864);(2)权力崛起—扩张底色下由国内政治零和博弈塑造的现实主义周期(1865~1940);(3)权力强势—扩张底色下由国内政治正和博弈塑造的自由主义周期(1941~2016)。2017年以来,收缩底色再现表明权力的相对衰落使美国大战略开启了新的周期,其形态将是由国际体系结构驱动的现实制度主义。
In recent years,the in-depth adjustment of the U.S.grand strategy has become a theoretical and practical issue that has attracted the attention of academic circles:whether it is the Trump administration’s departure from the liberal tradition or the lack of revival of liberalism after the Biden administration took office,it shows that the U.S.grand strategy has reached an important inflection point.In order to demonstrate this,the author builds an analytical framework formed by the interaction of power,politics,and structure based on three existing research paradigms—international systemcentric paradigm,neoclassical realism,and domestic politics-centric paradigm,to reinterpret the evolutionary logic and historical cycle of the U.S.grand strategy.In this framework,power determines the background of the U.S.grand strategy,while domestic political games and the international system structure interact to drive its evolution.During the periods of power rising and power superiority,the background of the U.S.grand strategy is expansion,and its evolution is driven by domestic political games.In the periods of power decline and power weakness,the background of the US grand strategy is contraction,and its evolution is driven by the international system structure.Based on this,the historical cycle of the U.S.grand strategy will be reclassified into three “75 years”:( 1) Weak power-an isolationist cycle shaped by the multipolar structure of the international system under the background of contraction( 1789-1864);( 2) The rise of power-the realism cycle shaped by the domestic political zero-sum game under the background of expansion( 1865-1940);( 3) The superiority of power-the liberal cycle shaped by the positive-sum game of domestic politics under the background of expansion( 1941-2016).Since 2017,the reappearance of the contraction of U.S.grand strategy shows that the relative decline of power has opened up a new cycle of U.S.grand strategy,and its form will be a realistic institutionalism driven by the internationa
出处
《国际关系研究》
CSSCI
2023年第1期62-86,M0005,M0006,共27页
Journal of International Relations
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“美国政治转型对特朗普政府外交政策的影响研究”(项目编号:19YJCGJW012)的阶段性成果。
关键词
美国大战略
权力
国内政治
国际体系
自由主义
U.S.grand strategy
power
domestic politics
international system
liberalism
