摘要
我国是世界粮食进口大国,国际粮食价格对国内粮食市场和粮食安全产生重要影响。本文基于长周期视角,分析了1964—2022年间国际粮食价格大幅上涨的特征和驱动因素。自1960年代以来国际粮食价格大涨共发生6次,分别发生于1972—1974年、1977—1981年、1994—1996年、2006—2008年、2010—2012年、2020—2022年,每次持续时间最短20个月,最长超过44个月。全球粮食价格大幅波动的根源和诱因表明,自然灾害和极端气候、地缘政治和地区冲突、贸易限制和供应链受阻、资本炒作和投机是国际粮食价格波动进而引发粮食危机的重要影响因素。总结这六次价格大幅波动规律,供求失衡是国际粮价波动的客观基础,资本炒作和投机是国际粮价短期急剧波动的重要推力,原油价格通过成本效应和替代效应与粮价共振等成为国际粮食价格波动的共性特征。为防范国际粮食价格上涨对国内输入性、传导性风险,应立足国内着力夯实粮食供求基本面,优化农业生产结构着力解决粮食供求结构性矛盾,加强粮食期现货市场监管预警打击资本炒作和恶意投机,积极参与全球粮食安全治理提高国际粮食供应链韧性。
China is a big importer of grain in the world.The international grain price has an important influence on domes⁃tic grain market and food security.Based on a long-cycle perspective,this paper analyzes the characteristics and driving factors of the sharp rise in international food prices during 1964-2022.Since the 1960s,there have been six sharp rises in international food prices,which occurred in 1972 to 1974,1977 to 1981,1994 to 1996,2006 to 2008,2010 to 2012,and 2020 to 2022,each lasting at least 20 months.The longest is over 44 months.The root causes and inducements of large fluctuations in global food prices show that natural disasters and extreme weather,geopolitical and regional conflicts,trade restrictions and supply chain dis⁃ruptions,capital speculation and speculation are important factors that lead to food crisis caused by fluctuations in international food prices.By summarizing the six large price fluctuation rules,it is found that the law of international food price fluctuation shows that the imbalance of supply and demand is the objective basis of international food price fluctuation,capital speculation is an important driving force behind the sharp short-term fluctuations in international food prices,and crude oil price has be⁃come a common feature of international food price fluctuation through cost effect and substitution effect resonance with food price.In order to prevent the import and transmission risks of rising international grain prices on China,we should strengthen the fundamentals of grain supply and demand,optimize the structure of agricultural production and address the structural contradic⁃tion between grain supply and demand,strengthen the supervision and early warning of the spot grain market to combat capital speculation and malicious speculation,and actively participate in global food security governance to provide resilience to the in⁃ternational food supply chain.
出处
《经济学家》
北大核心
2023年第3期109-119,共11页
Economist
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“健全城乡融合发展的体制机制研究”(21ZDA059)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国乳制品行业‘公司+农户’最优合约边界的理论与实证研究”(71873139)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国农户‘一户两制’现象的产生、扩散、演变与消亡机制及帕累托效率估算”(71773137)。
