摘要
随着全球气温不断升高、海冰不断融化缩减,北极海上运输活动日益增加,对北极大气和海洋生物等产生了潜在的威胁。从生态保护视角,以北极船舶海上溢油事故为例,评估北极海上运输活动对北极海洋生物的潜在影响;并采用多元回归分析方法探究影响因素的效应大小。考虑到北极航运和北极海洋生物之间潜在的相互作用,运用多主体系统(Multi-Agent System,MAS)建模并进行模拟分析。将北极航运的生物效应模型与北极航运海上运输模型、船舶溢油模型、溢油扩散模型相结合,以溢油污染区域的北极海洋生物损失率(直接接触溢油的北极海洋生物数量占比)和溢油油膜面积作为环境影响评价指标。结果表明,以北极东北航线为例,北极船舶交通量较少时,北极船舶溢油事故将影响1.1%~1.4%的北极海洋生物;交通量翻一番时,影响扩大至2.1%~2.7%。对北极海洋生物损失量影响最大的因素是溢油持续时间,北极水域通航期次之,北极船舶交通量影响再次之,溢油种类的影响最小。造成不同溢油种类中北极海洋生物损失率差异的重要原因是溢油面积不同。研究结果有助于评估北极航运对北极生态环境的影响,并可为北极海上事故应急响应提供参考。
Maritime transportation activity in the Arctic is increasing, which is due to global warming and decline of Arctic sea ice, posing a threat to local atmosphere, marine organisms,etc. From the perspective of ecological protection, potential impact of marine transportation in the Arctic on marine organisms is evaluated using multi-agent system(MAS)simulation through a case of ship-based oil spills. Multiple regression analysis is then used to compare impacts of factors. Considering the interactions between Arctic shipping and Arctic marine organisms and that MAS is shown to be effective to handle such interactions, MAS is used for modeling together with simulation. The biological effects model of Arctic shipping is combined with Arctic maritime transportation model, ship-based oil spill model and oil spreading model. The two indicators of environmental impact assessment are loss rate of Arctic marine organisms within the oiled area(the proportion of the population within the oiled area that gets into contact directly with the oil spills)and oil area. The results show that, taking Arctic Northeast Passage as an example, when vessel traffic in the Arctic is low, oil spill accidents caused by tankers affects 1. 1%~1. 4% of Arctic marine organisms during navigation period. The loss rate can rise to 2. 1%~2. 7% with doubled vessel traffic. It also shows that oil life days have the greatest impact on the loss of Arctic marine organisms, followed by navigation period. Arctic vessel traffic ranks third among all factors. Oil types come last. The variation of loss rate of Arctic marine organisms under different oil types is mainly due to the difference in oil area. The results are expected to help evaluate the impact of Arctic shipping on Arctic marine environment and improve the understanding of emergency preparedness and response of maritime accidents in the Arctic.
作者
骆巧云
刘伟
寿建敏
LUO Qiaoyun;LIU Wei;SHOU Jianmin(College of Transport&Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Economics&Management,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《世界地理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2023年第2期12-22,共11页
World Regional Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD070)
国家发展和改革委员会“一带一路”建设2016年专项课题(BR2016-02)
上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2017ycx070)。
