摘要
河流溢油事故会严重影响河流生态和供水安全,为了及时应对溢油事故,合理安排应急物资,有必要对溢油影响风险进行定量评估。本研究通过将数值模型和事件树模型相结合构建了河流溢油事故影响风险的评估方法,以长江中游为例,计算了溢油事故后油膜漂移距离的概率分布。结果表明在75%的概率下,事故发生后6 h内的油膜漂移距离小于42.7 km,24 h内油膜漂移距离小于143.0 km。本研究构建的风险评估方法可为溢油应急方案设计和应急物资储备提供科学指导。
Oil spill in the Yangtze River has serious impacts on river ecology and water supply security.In order to respond to the river oil spill accident in time,and to arrange the emergency supplies reasonably,it is necessary to evaluate the risk of oil spill impacts.In this study,a numerical model and event tree model were combined to construct an assessment method for the impact risk of river oil spill accidents.The probability distribution of oil slick drift distance after the oil spill accidents in the middle reach of the Yangtze River were calculated.The results showed that under 75%probability,the drift distance of oil slick drift was less than 42.7 km in 6 hours and less than 143.0 km in 24 hours in the research.The method of this study can provide reference for the design of emergency plan and the preparation of emergency supplies for river oil spill.
作者
张逸驰
彭辉
徐卫红
毕雪
ZHANG Yichi;PENG Hui;XU Weihong;BI Xue(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Key Laboratory of Marine Environment Science and Ecology,Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Changjiang Water Resources Protection Institution,Wuhan 430051,China)
出处
《海洋湖沼通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第6期80-88,共9页
Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology
基金
国家自然科学基金(No.51409236,No.41731280)
关键词
河流溢油
数值模拟
事件树分析
oil spill in the river
numerical model
event tree analysis
