摘要
目的 预测四川省卫生技术人员需求量,为四川省合理规划卫生技术人员提供科学依据。方法 分别以人力人口比值法、人力经济比值法、人力卫生健康支出比值法预测卫生技术人员数,通过对预测数与实际数进行统计学检验选择预测最为精确的方法进行预测。结果 人力人口比值法、人力经济比值法和人力卫生健康支出比值法预测的卫生技术人员数与实际数差异无统计学意义,3种预测方法均可行。对比发现,人力经济比值法的实际值与预测值之间的差异更小,预测更为精确。根据预测,2025年四川省卫生技术人员为856 036.85人。从专业类别看,2025年执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药师和其他人员分别为288 368.11、456 907.75、34 745.43和94 948.95人,医护比达到1∶1.58。从机构类别看,2025年基层医疗卫生机构的卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药师和其他人员分别为257 031.60、107 976.88、123 630.06、11 165.39和28 857.43人,医护比为1∶1.14。从医院等级分类看,2025年二级医院的卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药师和其他人员分别为125 790.24、37 194.35、68 975.33、5 865.25和14 607.72人。结论 卫生技术人员增长速度不一致,专业类别结构不合理,不同机构类别分布不均衡,不同等级医院卫生技术人员配置不一致。要明确二级医院的功能定位,加强卫生技术人员队伍培养,重点加强基层医疗卫生机构的护理人员和专业公共卫生机构的执业(助理)医师的建设。
Objective To forecast the demand for health technicians in Sichuan Province,provide scientific basis for the rational planning of health technicians in Sichuan Province. Methods The manpower to population ratio method,manpower economic ratio method and manpower health expenditure ratio method were used to predict the number of health technicians. The predicted number and the actual number were statistically tested and the most accurate method was selected for prediction. Results The number of health technicians predicted by manpower to population ratio method,manpower economic ratio method and manpower health expenditure ratio method was not significantly different from the actual number,and the three prediction methods were all feasible.Through comparison,it was found that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value of the manpower economic ratio method was smaller,and the prediction was more accurate.According to forecasts,there will be 856 036.85 health technicians in Sichuan Province in 2025. From the perspective of professional classification,in 2025,there be 288 368.11 practicing(assistant) physicians,456 907.75 registered nurses,34 745.43 pharmacists and 94 948.95 other personnel,and the ratio of doctors to nurses will reach 1 ∶ 1.58. From the perspective of the classification of institutions,the number of health technicians,practicing(assistant) physicians,registered nurses,pharmacists and other personnel in primary medical and health institutions in 2025 will be 257 031.60,107 976.88,123 630.06,11 165.39 and 28 857.43,respectively,and the ratio of doctors to nurses will reach 1 ∶ 1.14. From the perspective of the classification of hospitals,in 2025,there will be 125 790.24 health technicians,37 194.35 practicing(assistant) physicians,68 975.33 registered nurses,5 865.25 pharmacists and 14 607.72 other personnel in secondary hospitals. Conclusions The growth rate of health technicians is inconsistent,the professional category structure is unreasonable,the distribution of different
作者
周明华
谭红
何思长
ZHOU Ming-hua;TAN Hong;HE Si-zhang(Administration Office,Luzhou People's Hospital,Luzhou Sichuan,646000,China;Oral&Maxillofacial Reconstruction and Regeneration Laboratory,Southwest Medical University/Department of Periodontal Mucosal Disease,Affiliated Stomatology Hospital of Southwest Medical University,Luzhou Sichuan,646000,China;Information and Statistics Department,Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University,Luzhou Sichuan,646000,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2023年第3期418-423,共6页
Occupation and Health
基金
泸州市人民政府-西南医科大学科技战略合作项目(2020LZXNYDR10)
泸州市哲学社会科学重点研究基地·泸州市乡村振兴与新农教育研究中心项目(SHSK2022005)。
关键词
卫生技术人员
需求预测
人力人口比值法
人力经济比值法
人力卫生健康支出比值法
Health technicians
Demand forecasting
Manpower to population ratio method
Manpower economic ratio method
Manpower health expenditure ratio method
