摘要
双碳目标下,区域电网低碳发展潜力的量化评估,是减碳实践路径分析规划的基础。该文提出基于相对靶心度的区域电网低碳发展潜力评估方法。首先建立涵盖多指标、多评估对象的改进灰靶模型,考虑区域资源禀赋对低碳发展的约束,定义相对靶心度量化分析区域低碳发展潜力;基于综合多维度的相对靶心度对总体潜力进行综合评估,基于单一维度的相对靶心度,分析并辨识影响低碳发展潜力的关键因素。最后,通过江苏省某地市6个区域电网的实际统计数据展开算例分析。结果表明:相对靶心度能够明确低碳发展潜力最大的区域,衡量评估区域在不同指标上的发展空间并辨识关键发展因素,从而为减碳实践路径规划提供理论建议。
To achieve the target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the quantitative assessment of regional low-carbon development potential is regarded as the basis for the planning of carbon reduction pathways. A regional low-carbon development potential assessment method based on relative off-targets distance is proposed in the paper. First, the improved grey target model covering multiple indicators and assessment objects is established. Then, the off-targets distance can describe the gap between the assessment status and the target.Considering the constraints of regional resource endowment on development, the relative off-targets distance is defined to evaluate low-carbon development potential. Based on the relative off-targets distance of multi-dimensional indicators, a comprehensive assessment of the overall potential in the region is conducted. Based on the relative off-targets distance of single-dimensional indicators, the key factors affecting the low-carbon development potential are analyzed and identified.Finally, an example is carried out combined with the actual statistical data of 6 regional power grids in a certain city in Jiangsu Province;the results show that: the relative off-targets distance can not only identify the areas with the greatest low-carbon development potential, but also measure the development space of the evaluation area on different indicators, and identify key development factors, thereby providing theoretical suggestions for the planning of carbon reduction practice paths.
作者
徐菁
李妍
刘一鸣
龙禹
姜霁轩
XU Jing;LI Yan;LIU Yiming;LONG Yu;JIANG Jixuan(State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology(Huazhong University of Science and Technology),Wuhan 430074,Hubei Province,China)
出处
《中国电机工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第4期1281-1289,共9页
Proceedings of the CSEE
关键词
潜力评估
灰靶模型
正负靶心
相对靶心度
减碳路径
potential assessment
grey target model
positive and negative clout
relative off-targets distance
carbon reduction pathways
