摘要
人口老龄化会加重政府公共支出负担,并通过多种渠道助推主权债务风险,最终影响经济长期增长。文章使用1990~2019年全球72个发达国家和新兴市场国家的面板数据,研究人口老龄化对主权债务风险的影响机理,并从人口老龄化“两阶段”理论的角度分析两者关系的非线性特征。结果发现:第一,人口老龄化程度的加深会显著提升主权债务风险。当经济体老龄人口占比每提升1%时,主权债务风险将同比上升0.325%;老年抚养比每提升1%,主权债务风险将同比上升0.610%。第二,由于人口老龄化具有“两阶段”特征,人口老龄化通过政府赤字对主权债务风险的负面影响在短期内并不明显。当人口老龄化由初期过渡到中后期以后,人口老龄化同主权债务风险呈现“倒U型”关系。第三,已经摆脱“未富先老”特征的经济体的债务规模对于人口结构的变化更加敏感,更容易通过举债的方式来应对老龄化问题。因此,中国需要根据经济发展阶段的特征,制定合适的政策应对人口老龄化可能带来的影响,对主权债务风险进行有效的防范。
An aging population will increase the burden of government public spending and boost sovereign debt risk through various channels. Ultimately,it will affect long-term economic growth. Using the panel data of 72 developed and emerging market countries in the world from 1990 to 2019,this paper studies the impact mechanism of population aging on sovereign debt risk,and analyzes the nonlinear relationship between the two from the perspective of the " two-stage" theory of population aging. The results show that,first,the deepening of population aging will significantly increase the risk of sovereign debt. When the proportion of the elderly population in an economy increases by 1%,the risk of sovereign debt will increase by 0. 325% to 0. 712% year-onyear;when the old-age dependency ratio increases by 1%,the sovereign debt risk will increase by 0. 506% to 0. 610% year-onyear. Second,due to the " two-stage" characteristics of population aging,the negative impact of population aging on sovereign debt risk through government deficits is not obvious in the short term. When the population aging transitions from the early stage to the middle and late stage,the relationship between population aging and sovereign debt risk shows an inverted " U" shape.Third,the debt scale of economies that have gotten rid of the " getting old before getting rich" feature is more sensitive to change in demographic structure,and it is easier to deal with the problem of aging through borrowing. Therefore,according to the characteristics of the economic development stage,China needs to formulate appropriate policies to deal with the possible impact of population aging,and to effectively prevent sovereign debt risks.
作者
龙腾
王海军
LONG Teng;WANG Haijun
出处
《世界经济研究》
北大核心
2023年第2期119-133,M0004,共16页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“新时代我国区域开放空间格局优化与战略支撑研究”(项目编号:71861034)。
