摘要
文章基于2009—2019年的我国地方债务省级面板数据,重新审视了地方债务触发机制及其与消费投资、经济增长的内在关系,研究结果表明:(1)地方债务对经济增长呈现显著“倒U”型影响,债务水平阈值约83%,若地方债务规模扩大且超越债务平衡点,则会反噬经济增长,这在稳健性检验中得到验证。(2)从机制分析角度看,地方债务对经济增长产生影响可能通过消费、投资渠道实现。具体而言,政府债务对居民消费、城镇居民消费存在显著的“挤进效应”,但与农村居民消费没有表现出明显关系,对私人资本投资的“挤出效应”则较为显著。
Based on the provincial panel data of China’s local debt from 2009 to 2019, this paper re-examines the trigger mechanism of local debt and its internal relationship with consumption investment and economic growth. The results are as follows:(1) Local debt has a significant inverted U-shaped influence on economic growth, with a debt level threshold of about 83%. If the scale of local debt expands and exceeds the debt equilibrium point, it will backfire on economic growth, which has been verified by the robustness test.(2) From the perspective of mechanism analysis, the impact of local debt on economic growth may be realized through consumption and investment channels. Specifically speaking, government debt has a significant“crowding-in effect”on household consumption and urban consumption, and has no obvious relationship with rural consumption, but has a significant“crowding-out effect”on private capital investment.
作者
吴志军
黄显池
陈飞羽
Wu Zhijun;Huang Xianchi;Chen Feiyu(Institute of Jiangxi Economic Development and Reform,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Finance and Economics,Guangdong University of Science and Technology,Dongguan Guangdong 523000,China;Financial College,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
北大核心
2023年第4期137-142,共6页
Statistics & Decision
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71503110)
江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JJ17106)。
关键词
地方债务
经济增长
消费投资
动态面板
local debt
economic growth
consumption investment
dynamic panel
