摘要
振兴居民消费,是构建国内国际双循环的关键点之一。本文利用2003-2017年省级面板数据,在测算我国省级消费升级指数的基础上,实证检验房价上涨、地方政府债务对居民消费升级的影响。结果表明:从总效应来看,房价上涨抑制居民消费升级,地方政府债务促进居民消费升级。从中介效应来看,地方政府债务发挥的正向间接效应弱化了房价上涨直接负向效应,表现为遮掩效应。分区域来看,房价上涨抑制东部和中部地区居民消费升级,但促进西部地区居民消费升级。同时,地方政府债务在东部地区表现为遮掩效应,在西部地区表现为中介效应,在中部地区表现不显著。
The revitalization of household consumption is one of the key points in building a domestic and international dual cycle.Based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2017 in China,this paper constructs a consumption upgrading index system,calculates each provincial consumption upgrading index,and empirically examines the relationship between rising housing prices,local government debt and resident consumption upgrading.The research results that:From the perspective of the overall effect,rising housing prices inhibited the upgrading of household consumption,and local government debt promotes household consumption upgrading.From the mediation effect,the positive indirect effect of local government debt weakens the negative effect of the direct effect of housing price,which is manifested as the masking effect;In terms of different regions,the rising housing price restrains the household consumption upgrading in eastern and central regions,but promotes the household consumption upgrading in western regions.At the same time,the local government debt in the eastern region shows the masking effect,the western region shows the intermediary effect,the central region is not significant.
作者
叶菁菁
唐荣
Ye Jingjing;Tang Rong
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期83-93,共11页
Finance & Economics
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“高质量生产性服务业集聚促进‘广东制造’向价值链中高端迈进机理与路径研究”(GD20YYJ03)
广州市哲学社会科学发展“十三五”规划2020年度共建项目“粤港澳大湾区城市金融集聚推进制造业价值链攀升的机理与路径研究”(2020GZGJ150)
关键词
房价上涨
地方政府债务
居民消费升级
Rising Housing Prices
Local Government Debt
Resident Consumption Upgrading
