摘要
基于1998—2019年31个省份的面板数据,结合粮食主产区政策的准自然实验证据,采用双重差分模型分析粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放强度具有显著的抑制作用;粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放强度的影响存在显著的区域异质性,其中,中部地区粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放强度具有显著的抑制作用,非中部地区粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放强度具有显著的促进作用;农用机械使用强度在粮食主产区政策对农业碳排放强度的影响中发挥正向调节作用。据此,提出因地制宜发展以突出区域特色,优化要素结构以推进绿色生产,推动农机换代以转换新旧动能等对策,以推进农业绿色低碳可持续发展。
Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1998 to 2019, and combined with the quasi natural experimental evidence from policies in China′s main grain producers, this paper uses difference-in-differences model to analyze the impact of the policies in main grain producers on agricultural carbon emission intensity. The results show that the policies in main grain producers have a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity. In addition, the inhibitory effect shows significant regional heterogeneity. Of which, the policies in central main grain producers have a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity, while the policies in non-central grain producers have a significant promotion effect on agricultural carbon emission intensity. Agricultural machinery using intensity plays a positive moderating role in the influence of the policies in main grain producers on agricultural carbon emission intensity. According to the results, this paper puts forward the countermeasures such as developing according to local conditions to highlight regional characteristics, optimizing factor structure to promote green production, and promoting the replacement of agricultural machinery to transform old and new driving forces, so as to promote the green, low-carbon and sustainable development of agriculture.
作者
原野
李太平
YUAN Ye;LI Taiping(School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210095,China)
出处
《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2023年第1期84-94,共11页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)。
关键词
粮食主产区政策
农业碳排放强度
农业发展
粮食安全
the policies in main grain producers
agricultural carbon emission intensity
agricultural development
food security
