摘要
以1978—2020年中国粮食产量及其主要影响因素的时间序列数据为样本,选取8项对粮食生产具有较大影响的指标建立多元线性回归模型,并利用SPSS软件进行计量分析。结果表明:影响中国粮食产量的主要因素为粮食作物播种面积、农用化肥施用折纯量、受灾面积,影响程度分别为1.173、0.363、-0.123。据此提出稳定粮食产量的对策:稳定粮食播种面积、科学合理施用化肥、加强自然灾害预防。
Based on the time series data of China’s grain production and its main influencing factors from 1978 to 2020,this paper selected eight indicators that had a great influence on grain production to establish a multiple linear regression model and used SPSS software for econometric analysis.The results showed that the main factors affecting China’s grain production were the planting area of grain crops,the amount of agricultural fertilizer application and the affected area,with the influence degrees of 1.173,0.363,and-0.123,respectively.The countermeasures to stabilize grain production were:stabilizing grain planting area,applying chemical fertilizer scientifically and reasonably,and strengthening natural disaster prevention.
作者
苏玉晋
李亮
孙政政
潘凯涛
余红
Su Yujin;Li Liang;Sun Zhengzheng;Pan Kaitao;Yu Hong(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052)
出处
《粮食科技与经济》
2022年第6期12-17,共6页
Food Science And Technology And Economy
关键词
粮食产量
多元线性回归
影响因素
对策
food production
multiple linear regression
influencing factors
countermeasures
