摘要
新时期有效测度政府隐性担保日趋重要,而该研究领域仍是一片蓝海。本文结合隐性事物的研究逻辑,重新界定了政府隐性担保,并考察了其测度工作的特殊性。本文将现有方法按测度目标分为直接测度法和间接测度法两类,进而系统梳理了相关文献。直接测度法和间接测度法分别针对担保的绝对价值和相对价值。在当前应用中,两类方法分别存在较大的模型设定误差、估计误差以及代表性误差。对此,本文就未来研究的拓展方向进行了深入探讨:直接测度法应在更契合现实的标的现金流结构和担保规则下建立结构模型,并借助“异常”状态刻画担保信念;间接测度法则应聚焦担保产生机制,拓宽担保来源范围,并重视担保信念修正规律。
It is increasingly important to effectively measure implicit government guarantees in new period,and the research field remains uncharted territory.We redefine implicit government guarantee and examine the specificity of its measurement with the research logic of implicit things.We classify the existing measurement methods into“direct measures”and“indirect measures”according to their objectives,and systematically review the related literature.The direct and indirect measures respectively focus on the absolute and relative value of guarantees.In current application,the two methods have large model setting errors,estimation errors and representative errors,respectively.In this regard,we discuss the future research directions.The direct measures should build structural models under more realistic cash flow structures and guarantee rules,and characterize beliefs by means of“abnormal”states.The indirect measures should concentrate on the guarantee generation mechanism,broaden the range of guarantee sources,and pay attention to the guarantee belief correction.
作者
孟世超
王擎
Meng Shichao;Wang Qing
出处
《世界经济》
北大核心
2023年第2期209-240,共32页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金专项项目(18VSJ073)
国家自然科学基金专项项目(71950010)的支持。
关键词
政府隐性担保
信念
直接测度法
间接测度法
implicit government guarantees
belief
direct measures
indirect measures
