摘要
目前处于分布式光伏整县模式和平价上网的交汇时期,各地光照资源禀赋及政策等的差异表明户用屋顶光伏整县推进不能一概而论。以演化博弈论为理论基础,构建了装机补贴、电量补贴和平价上网3种政策下屋顶所有者、电网、光伏企业、政府的户用光伏市场四维演化系统,以2类试点地区为例,对各补贴政策下两地的均衡状态进行动态仿真模拟,并基于平价上网下的博弈模型对两地均衡状态进行“帕累托”改进。结果表明,在光照资源丰富且用电量小的地区能够实现自建屋顶光伏的理想整县均衡状态,且可通过成本节约、上网电价、居民电量补贴加快均衡实现;对光照资源相对匮乏且用电量大的地区而言,3类补贴政策下均无法实现理想均衡,居民电量补贴是实现其“帕累托”改进的有效工具;光伏企业在与国企的竞争中仍占主导地位,政府监管将逐渐被市场化取代。
At present, it is in the intersection period of the distributed photovoltaic whole county model and the grid parity. The differences in the endowment of light resources and policies in different places indicate that the promotion of household rooftop photovoltaics should not be generalized. Based on the evolutionary game theory, the four-dimensional evolutionary system for the household photovoltaic market of the roof owners, the power grids, the photovoltaic enterprises, and the government under the three policies of installed capacity subsidy, electricity subsidy and grid parity are constructed. By selecting two places to making experiments, the dynamic equilibrium state of the two places under each subsidy policy is simulated, and is Pareto improved based on the game model of the grid parity. The results show that the ideal county-wide equilibrium state of the self-built rooftop photovoltaics can be achieved in areas with abundant lighting resources and low electricity consumption, and it can be accelerated through cost savings, on-grid electricity prices, and residential electricity subsidies;For regions with relatively scarce lighting resources and large electricity consumption, the ideal balance can hardly be achieved under the three types of subsidy policies, and the residents’ electricity subsidy is an effective tool to achieve Pareto improvement;The PV companies still dominate the competition with the state-owned enterprises, and the government regulation will gradually be replaced by marketization.
作者
陈娟
高江梅
CHEN Juan;GAO Jiangmei(Department of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China)
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期669-678,共10页
Power System Technology
基金
河北省社会科学基金项目(HB19YJ011)。
关键词
屋顶光伏
整县模式
协同机制
四维演化博弈
rooftop photovoltaic
whole county model
synergy mechanism
four-dimensional evolutionary game
