摘要
自20世纪80年代中后期以来我国人口出现了明显的婚姻推迟现象。婚姻推迟与补偿问题不仅关系婚姻家庭本身,而且与生育水平紧密相关,因而受到广泛关注。然而,以往相关研究存在以下不足:第一,对于婚姻推迟仅仅是人口步入婚姻的“进度”上的减慢,还是随着结婚年龄的推迟最终导致相当比例的人终身不婚这一问题,现有研究持不同观点,需要进一步检验。第二,以往相关研究多关于女性,但在中国婚姻挤压非常严重的人口结构背景下,分析比较两性婚姻推迟与补偿的特点更具有意义。第三,以往研究在方法上多使用净婚姻表分析其主要指标,但净婚姻表因纳入了死亡因素反而不能反映婚姻的“净变化”。鉴于此,文章利用我国最新普查数据,采用粗婚姻表以及婚姻补偿指数等多个统计指标,从队列和时期视角探讨近30年来中国婚姻推迟趋势及其补偿效应,特别关注在婚姻挤压背景下婚姻推迟与补偿的性别差异。研究结果表明:中国人口的婚姻推迟程度不断加深,近20年男性婚姻推迟程度高于女性;男女婚姻推迟的补偿效应不断减弱,且男性婚姻推迟的补偿效应低于女性。根据男女婚姻推迟与补偿、终身未婚比例的变化趋势,未来15-20年我国男性将过渡到晚婚不婚模式,而女性还将保持在晚婚普婚模式。我国婚姻推迟与补偿的性别差异与婚姻挤压有密切关系。
Since the mid to late 1980s,the Chinese population has experienced a significant postponement in marriage.The issue of marriage postponement and recuperation is not only related to the marital family,but also closely related to the level of fertility,thus receiving a lot of attention.However,there are at least the following aspects of previous relevant studies that could be further advanced.First,existing studies differ on whether the postponement in marriage is simply a slowdown in the“progress”of the population towards marriage,or whether the postponement in the age of marriage eventually leads to a significant proportion of people not marrying for life,and further testing is needed.Second,previous related studies are mostly about women.But in the demographic context of China’s very serious marriage squeeze,it is more meaningful to analyze and compare the characteristics of marriage postponement and recuperation between the two sexes.Third,previous studies have methodologically used the Net Marriage Scale to analyze its main indicators,but the Net Marriage Scale does not reflect the“net change”in marriage due to the inclusion of the death factor.In view of this,the article explores the trends of marriage postponement and its recuperation effects in China over the past 30 years from a cohort and period perspective,using the latest census data in China and several statistical indicators such as the Crude Marriage Scale and the marriage recuperation index,with special attention to gender differences in marriage postponement and recuperation in the context of marriage squeeze.The results of this study showed that,on the one hand,the trends of marriage postponement among the Chinese population are deepening.In the past 20 years,the trends of marriage postponement of men are higher than that of women.On the other hand,the recuperation effects between men and women have been diminishing.And the recuperation effects of marriage delay are lower for men than for women.In general,according to the trends of marri
作者
石人炳
柯姝琪
SHI Renbing;KE Shuqi(Department of Sociology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei,430074,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
北大核心
2023年第1期81-95,共15页
Population Journal
基金
国家社科基金项目:性别失衡背景下的城乡异向婚姻挤压问题研究(21BRK005)。
关键词
婚姻推迟
补偿效应
性别差异
Marriage Postponement
Recuperation Effects
Gender Differences
