摘要
目的了解厦门市同安区主要大气污染物和肺癌发病的时间变化趋势,探讨大气主要污染物与肺癌发病的关联性及污染物对肺癌发病的滞后效应。方法收集2014-2019年厦门市同安区的肺癌月发病数、主要大气污染物〔可入肺颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))、二氧化硫(SO_(2))、二氧化氮(NO_(2))〕月平均浓度资料和气象资料,采用基于泊松分布的广义相加模型建立单污染和多污染物模型定量分析大气主要污染物与肺癌发病的关联性。结果2014-2019年同安区居民肺癌共1099例,肺癌月平均发生数为15.26例。在单污染物模型中,PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),对肺癌当月(lag0)及滞后1~2月(lag1~lag2)的效应均有统计学意义,均P<0.05;PM_(10)、SO_(2)和NO_(2)的浓度每升高10μg/m^(3),对肺癌当月(lag0)及滞后1~3月(lag1~lag3)的效应均有统计学意义,均P<0.05;PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)和NO_(2)在当月所对应的超额危险度(ER)值最高,其ER值分别为0.33%(95%CI:0.10%~0.59%)、0.28%(95%CI:0.16%~0.50%)、0.27%(95%CI:0.15%~0.44%)和0.36%(95%CI:0.12%~0.47%)。多污染物模型中后,SO_(2)和NO_(2)对PM_(2.5)的影响具有协同增强效应,均P<0.05。结论2014-2019年厦门市同安区肺癌发病人数随PM_(2.5)浓度升高而上升,且存在滞后效应,应更广泛开展肺癌监测,改善空气质量,完善环境风险预警体系,降低人群健康风险。
Objective To assess the time association of major air pollutants and lung cancer incidence,and to investigate the relevance and the lag effect of air pollutants on lung cancer incidence in Tongan district in Xiamen city.Methods We collected data of monthly lung cancer morbidity,monthly average concentration,climatological data and major air pollutants,including PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2)and NO_(2)from 2014 to 2019 in Tongan district.Single-pollutant and multi-pollutant models were established using Generalized Poisson Addition model to quantitatively analyze the correlation between major air pollutants and lung cancer incidence.Results The total of 1099 lung cancer cases occurred in Tongan district from 2014 to 2019,with a monthly average of 15.26.In single-pollutant model,every 10μg/m^(3)increase in PM_(2.5)concentration was statistically significant with lung cancer incidence in the current month(lag0)and in lag 1-2 months(both P<0.05);Every 10μg/m^(3)increase in PM_(10),SO_(2),and NO_(2)concentration was statistically significant with disease incidence at lag0,and in lag 1-3 months(all P<0.05).PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2)and NO_(2)had the highest excess risk(ER)value at lag0,with its ER value of 0.33%(95%CI:0.10%-0.59%),0.28%(95%CI:0.16%-0.50%),0.27%(95%CI:0.15%-0.44%)and 0.36%(95%CI:0.12%-0.47%).In the multi-pollutant model,SO_(2)and NO_(2)had synergistic enhancement effect with PM_(2.5),all P<0.05.Conclusions The concentration of PM_(2.5)increasing may enhance the risk of lung cancer morbidity in Tongan district of Xiamen city from 2014 to 2019,and its impact lag for some time.Widespread lung cancer monitoring,improvement in air quality and sophisticated environmental risk early warning system help reduce the health risk of the population.
作者
陈珊瑚
方亚
陈上清
CHEN Shan-hu;FANG Ya;CHEN Shang-qing(School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen361102,China;First Department of Disease Control,Tongan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen361100,China)
出处
《中华肿瘤防治杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第22期1579-1584,共6页
Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment
