摘要
目的分析乌鲁木齐市大气污染物(PM_(2.5)和PM_(10))对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。方法依据2015-2019年乌鲁木齐市大气污染物[细颗粒物(fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(inhalable particles,PM_(10))]浓度资料,结合乌鲁木齐市2015-2019年呼吸系统疾病死亡资料,采用泊松广义回归模型,分析大气污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响。结果PM_(2.5)在Lag7时,对呼吸系统疾病效应值最大为1.45%(95%CI:1.13%~1.67%),PM_(10)在Lag3时,效应值最大为1.18%(95%CI:0.93%~1.43%);PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对男性滞后效应在Lag7、Lag3最大,为1.42%(95%CI:1.02%~1.82%)、1.19%(95%CI:0.88%~1.51%);PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对女性滞后效应在Lag6最大,为1.51%(95%CI:0.97%~2.04%)、1.23%(95%CI:0.81%~1.65%);PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)对<60岁年龄组滞后效应在Lag3、Lag1最大,为1.10%(95%CI:0.62%~2.15%)、1.02%(95%CI:0.21%~1.83%);PM_(2.5)在Lag6时,对≥60岁年龄组效应值最大为1.44%(95%CI:0.10%~1.78%),PM_(10)在Lag3时,效应值最大为1.20%(95%CI:0.94%~1.46%)。结论PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)对呼吸系统疾病死亡存在滞后效应,且PM_(2.5)对呼吸系统疾病死亡风险更大。PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)对女性、高龄人群的死亡风险影响较大,PM_(2.5)对男性、高龄人群的死亡风险滞后时间较长。
Objective To analyze the impact of air pollutants(PM_(2.5)and PM_(10))on the death of respiratory diseases in Urumqi.Methods According to the concentration data of air pollutants[Fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)),inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10))]in Urumqi from 2015-2019,combined with the death data of respiratory diseases in Urumqi from 2015-2019,the Poisson generalized regression model was used to analyze the impact of air pollutants on the death of respiratory diseases.Results PM_(2.5)had the largest effect on respiratory diseases in Lag7,which was 1.45%(95%CI:1.13%-1.67%),while PM_(10)had the largest effect in Lag3,which was 1.18%(95%CI:0.93%-1.43%).PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)had the largest lag effect on males in lag7 and Lag3 respectively,which was 1.42%(95%CI:1.02%-1.82%)and 1.19%(95%CI:0.88%-1.51%).PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)had the largest lag effect on females both in Lag6,which was 1.51%(95%CI:0.97%-2.04%)and 1.23%(95%CI:0.81%-1.65%).PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)had the largest lag effect on people<60 years old in Lag3 and Lag1 respectively,which was 1.10%(95%CI:0.62%-2.15%)and 1.02%(95%CI:0.21%-1.83%).For the people≥60 years old,PM_(2.5)had the largest effect in Lag6,which was 1.44%(95%CI:0.10%-1.78%),and PM_(10)had the largest g effect in Lag3,which was 1.20%(95%CI:0.94%-1.46%).Conclusion PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)have a lag effect on the death of respiratory diseases,and PM_(2.5)has a greater risk of death of respiratory diseases.PM_(2.5)and PM_(10)have a greater impact on the death risk of females and the elderly,while PM_(2.5)has a longer lag time on the death risk of males and the elderly.
作者
谢惠芳
陈佩弟
孙高峰
XIE Hui-fang;CHEN Pei-di;SUN Gao-feng(School of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi Xinjiang,830017,China;Department of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases,Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Urumqi Xinjiang,830000,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2021年第17期2406-2411,共6页
Occupation and Health
基金
国家自然科学基金(81460480)。
