摘要
对未来土地利用空间格局模拟研究,能够为城市土地资源的合理开发和建设生态文明城市提供一定的科学参考依据。本研究以太原市为研究区域,基于2000年、2010年、2020年3个不同时期的土地利用数据,采用标准差椭圆方法对城市土地利用的空间分布以及方向变化趋势进行系统性分析,并通过PLUS(Patch-generating Landuse Simulation)模型在自然发展情景、生态保护情景、经济建设情景3种不同情景下模拟未来太原市2030年土地利用变化情况。研究结果表明:(1)2000—2020年太原市土地利用类型主要以耕地、林地、草地为主,建设用地趋于分散分布,由东南向西北方向扩张。(2)Kappa系数为0.94,模拟精度较高,具有较好的实用性,能够准确地反映太原市未来不同情景约束下的土地利用空间演变情况。(3)模拟预测太原市2030年土地利用变化,在三种不同情景下建设用地处于增长状态,自然发展情景中建设用地增长面积最大为128.16 km2,其次是经济建设情景,面积增长86.03 km2。研究结果可为城市未来可持续发展提供借鉴。
The simulation of land use pattern in the future can provide a scientific reference for the rational development of urban land resources and the construction of eco-civilized cities.Based on the land use data of Taiyuan in 2000,2010,and 2020,the spatial distribution and trend of urban land use change are analyzed systematically by using standard deviation ellipse method,and the PLUS model is used to simulate future land use change Taiyuan in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development scenario,ecological protection scenario and economic construction scenario.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,farmland,woodland and grassland were the major land use types in Taiyuan,while the construction land tended to be scattered and expanded from southeast to northwest.(2)Kappa had a high simulation accuracy of 0.94,which has good practicability for this study.The future land used spatial evolution under different scenarios in Taiyuan could be prepared to be reflected.(3)Land use change in Taiyuan in 2030 was expected to increase under three scenarios,with the largest increase in construction land area being 128.16km~2 under natural development scenarios,followed by economic development scenarios,the area increased by 86.03 km~2.The results can be used for reference for the future sustainable development of cities.
作者
吴觉妹
王莉雯
WU Jue-mei;WANG Li-wen(School of Geographical Science,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian Liaoning 116029,China)
出处
《河北省科学院学报》
CAS
2022年第6期71-78,共8页
Journal of The Hebei Academy of Sciences
