摘要
针对如何通过预测未来土地利用结构的变化,以解决不合理的土地覆被类型造成的人地矛盾逐渐尖锐,以及生态、经济、社会发展失衡等问题,通过马尔可夫-斑块生成土地利用模拟(Markov-patch-generating land use simulation,Markov-PLUS)模型,以2000、2010、2020年乐山市土地覆被数据为基础,模拟2030年在自然惯性发展、生态保护、耕地保护3种不同情景下土地覆被的数量以及空间格局的变化,并对其转化情况进行分析。结果表明,Markov-PLUS模型模拟精度较高,可以较好地预测未来乐山市不同发展情景下土地覆被的数量以及空间格局的变化。土地覆被在3种情景中都有变化,耕地、草地、灌木地以及湿地面积在3种情景中均下降,水体、人造地表面积均上升,林地在生态保护情景下上升,其余2种情景下降。3种发展情景对比发现:生态保护情景下能较好保护乐山市生态环境;耕地保护情景下需要更严格的政策干预来保护耕地。该研究通过模拟预测不同情景下乐山市未来土地覆被变化,从而为该地区土地利用规划提供可能的参考。
This article focused on how to predict future changes in land use structure to address the increasingly acute conflict between human and land caused by unreasonable land cover types,as well as the imbalance of ecological,economic,and social development,the Markov-patch-generating land use simulation(Markov-PLUS)model was used.Based on the land cover data of Leshan city in 2000,2010,and 2020,the Markov-PLUS model was used to simulate the quantitative changes and spatial patterns of land cover under three different development scenarios in 2030,and their transformation results were analyzed.The results showed that Markov-PLUS model had high simulation accuracy,the quantity and spatial patterns changes of land cover in different development scenarios of natural inertial development,ecological protection and farmland protection of Leshan city in the future could be well predicted.Land cover undergoes changed in all three scenarios.The area of cultivated land,grassland,shrub land,and wetland decreased in all three scenarios,while the area of water and artificial surface increased.The area of forest land increased in the ecological protection scenario,while the area of the other two scenarios decreased.Comparison of three development scenarios revealed that the ecological environment in Leshan city could be well protected under ecological protection scenarios.In the context of farmland protection,stricter policy interventions were needed to protect farmland.By simulating prediction of future land cover changes in Leshan city under different scenarios,possible references can be provided for land use planning in the region.
作者
吴轩
张天翼
王玉贵
WU Xuan;ZHANG Tianyi;WANG Yugui(College of Geography and Resources Science,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610066,China;Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest China,Chengdu 610066,China)
出处
《湖北民族大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2024年第2期293-300,共8页
Journal of Hubei Minzu University:Natural Science Edition
基金
四川省科技计划项目(2023NSFSC1979)。
